A smart and decentralized electrical system, powered by grid-connected renewable energy (RE) with a reliable storage system, has the potential to change the future socio-economic dynamics. Climate change may, however, affect the potential of RE and its related technologies. This study investigated the impact of climate change on photovoltaic cells’ temperature response and energy potential under two CO2 emission scenarios, RCP2.6 and 8.5, for the near future (2024–2040) and mid-century (2041–2065) in Togo. An integrated Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) from the CORDEX-CORE initiative datasets has been used as input. The latter platform recorded various weather variables, such as solar irradiance, air temperature, wind speed and direction, and relative humidity. Results showed that PV cells’ temperature would likely rise over all five regions in the country and may trigger a decline in the PV potential under RCP2.6 and 8.5. However, the magnitude of the induced change, caused by the changing climate, depended on two major factors: (1) the PV technology and (2) geographical position. Results also revealed that these dissimilarities were more pronounced under RCP8.5 with the amorphous technology. It was further found that, nationally, the average cell temperature would have risen by 1 °C and 1.82 °C under RCP2.6 and 8.5, in that order, during the 2024–2065 period for a-Si technology. Finally, the PV potential would likely decrease, on average, by 0.23% for RCP2.6 and 0.4% for RCP8.5 for a-Si technology.

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According to the Togolese Policy and Regulatory Overviews on Clean Energy, the residential sector in Lomé accounts for nearly 60 percent of the total electricity consumption. This fact is especially due to the current nature of the economy. A system dynamics model was built using Stella software to estimate both the current and long-term household electricity consumptions. These near (2030) and far future (2050) energy forecasts were carried out for Lomé, the capital city of Togo. Two different models were not only built, but also calibrated utilizing data from the past sixteen years as a benchmark. The first model was built based on the: 1) population, 2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and 3) per capita electricity consumption. The second model was solely based on the: 1) number of households with electricity and 2) households accessing electricity. Results revealed that the population of Lomé under the current birth rate will be close to 3 million in 2030 and 5 million in 2050, with corresponding electricity consumption close to 860 GWh and 3 TWh, respectively. Therefore, growth in population, economy, and number of households with electricity will continue to drive the future electricity consumption in Lomé. This study could help investors and policy-makers to set the necessary investments by ensuring a timely, reliable, and resilient electricity supply at the turning of 2050 in the city of Lomé and the country at large.