Finding a quiet, state-of-the-art conventional submarine in a large area is a challenging task and the potential impacts of the threat of such a submarine can delay operations and consume large numbers of military assets. At the theater level, a technological impact assessment of the operational characteristics of a notional air independent propulsion (AIP) system submarine design is performed using a mission simulation context. This paper refreshes the topic of conventional submarine design, provides examples of analyses that demonstrate the assessment of the performance characteristics of current technology, and provides aids for decision makers in determining the impacts of future designs and possible threats. At the theater level, a technological impact assessment of the operational characteristics of a notional AIP system submarine design is performed using a mission simulation context. This study investigates potential improvements by varying systems within the same hull form. The results demonstrate the probability of detections possible with AIP propulsion systems.

This study examines a methodology that can aid the decision maker in projecting the performance of future vessel concepts and in allocating the resources for technological research and development in an optimum way. The method is generic, and can be applied to any system that can be modeled mathematically, such as a naval surface combatant or submarine. The method combines system-level design parameters with technology impact assessment. The impact of technology is assessed through the use of technology k-factors through a design of experiments and response surface method that is coupled with a computational ship synthesis model to modify the technical characteristics or the cost parameters of the design. These modifications result in changes to the technical metrics used to simulate the hypothetical improvement or degradation associated with the new technology. This methodology is demonstrated through a technological impact assessment of the operational characteristics of a conventional submarine design.