Background:Human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal cancer (OPSCC) is associated with improved survival compared with HPV-negative disease. However, a minority of HPV-positive patients have poor prognosis. Currently, there is no generally accepted strategy for identifying these patients.Methods:We retrospectively analysed 270 consecutively treated OPSCC patients from three centres for effects of clinical, pathological, immunological, and molecular features on disease mortality. We used Cox regression to examine associations between factors and OPSCC death, and developed a prognostic model for 3-year mortality using logistic regression analysis.Results:Patients with HPV-positive tumours showed improved survival (hazard ratio (HR), 0.33 (0.21–0.53)). High levels of tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) stratified HPV-positive patients into high-risk and low-risk groups (3-year survival; HPV-positive/TILhigh=96%, HPV-positive/TILlow=59%). Survival of HPV-positive/TILlow patients did not differ from HPV-negative patients (HR, 1.01; P=0.98). We developed a prognostic model for HPV-positive tumours using a ‘training' cohort from one centre; the combination of TIL levels, heavy smoking, and T-stage were significant (AUROC=0·87). This model was validated on patients from the other centres (detection rate 67% false-positive rate 5.6% AUROC=0·82).Interpretation:Our data suggest that an immune response, reflected by TIL levels in the primary tumour, has an important role in the improved survival seen in most HPV-positive patients, and is relevant for the clinical evaluation of HPV-positive OPSCC.

Worldwide, approximately 405 000 cases of oral cancer (OSCC) are diagnosed each year, with a rising incidence in many countries. Despite advances in surgery and radiotherapy, which remain the standard treatment options, the mortality rate has remained largely unchanged for decades, with a 5-year survival rate of around 50%. OSCC is a heterogeneous disease, staged currently using the TNM classification, supplemented with pathological information from the primary tumour and loco-regional lymph nodes. Although patients with advanced disease show reduced survival, there is no single pathological or molecular feature that identifies aggressive, early-stage tumours. We retrospectively analysed 282 OSCC patients for disease mortality, related to clinical, pathological, and molecular features based on our previous functional studies [EGFR, αvβ6 integrin, smooth muscle actin (SMA), p53, p16, EP4]. We found that the strongest independent risk factor of early OSCC death was a feature of stroma rather than tumour cells. After adjusting for all factors, high stromal SMA expression, indicating myofibroblast transdifferentiation, produced the highest hazard ratio (3.06, 95% CI 1.65-5.66) and likelihood ratio (3.6; detection rate: false positive rate) of any feature examined, and was strongly associated with mortality, regardless of disease stage. Functional assays showed that OSCC cells can modulate myofibroblast transdifferentiation through αvβ6-dependent TGF-β1 activation and that myofibroblasts promote OSCC invasion. Finally, we developed a prognostic model using Cox regression with backward elimination; only SMA expression, metastasis, cohesion, and age were significant. This model was independently validated on a patient subset (detection rate 70%; false positive rate 20%; ROC analysis 77%, p < 0.001). Our study highlights the limited prognostic value of TNM staging and suggests that an SMA-positive, myofibroblastic stroma is the strongest predictor of OSCC mortality. Whether used independently or as part of a prognostic model, SMA identifies a significant group of patients with aggressive tumours, regardless of disease stage.

Our study shows that potentially the ultrasound has a role in stratifying patients who are extractable nuclear antibody-negative and can help to prioritize the biopsy for those who have sonographic evidence of SS.

No abstract

No abstract