Between 2005 and 2015, US electricity sector emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide, which harm human health and the environment, declined by two thirds, and many coal‐fired power plants became unprofitable and retired. Intense public controversy has focused on these changes, but the literature has not identified their underlying causes. Using a new electricity sector model of the US eastern interconnection that accurately reproduces unit operation, emissions, and retirement, we find that electricity consumption and natural gas prices account for nearly all the coal plant profitability declines and resulting retirements. Environmental regulations had little effect on these outcomes.

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The D4 RIN is the tradable compliance certificate for the biomass-based diesel mandate in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Understanding the price dynamics of the D4 RIN is important for understanding the RFS because its price sets a ceiling on the ethanol RIN (D6) and because some observers have suggested that RIN price fluctuations are too large to be explained by economic theory. We use option pricing theory to develop a model of the D4 RIN in terms of its economic fundamentals: the spread between the prices of biodiesel and petroleum diesel and the status of the biodiesel blenders' tax credit. The resulting D4 fundamental price closely tracks actual D4 prices. We conclude that RIN price volatility arises because of the design of the RFS and intrinsic features of the US fuel supply system.

The initial distribution of emissions allowances is usually thought to be independent of the emissions outcome, but free allocation can affect the efficiency and fairness of allowance trading. Inefficiency may result from thin allowance markets, poor price discovery, and regulatory or organizational complexities that hinder recognition of opportunity costs and innovation. Concerns about fairness may result from lack of access to allowances for some entities and lack of transparency with respect to transfers of substantial value in the program. We explore the role of consignment auctions in mitigating these concerns. These revenue-neutral auctions return revenue to the original allowance holders, whose compliance obligations can be met by reacquiring allowances through purchase. Consignment auctions have minimal administrative costs and do not necessarily involve government. Experience indicates that they can play an important role in a new market. EPA and states could consider consignment auctions in planning for the Clean Power Plan.

The D4 RIN is the tradable compliance certificate for the biomass‐based diesel (BBD) mandate in the renewable fuel standard (RFS). Understanding the price dynamics of the D4 RIN is important for understanding the RFS because its price sets a ceiling on the ethanol RIN (D6) and because some observers have suggested that RIN price fluctuations are too large to be explained by economic theory. We use option pricing theory to develop a model of the D4 RIN in terms of its economic fundamentals: the spread between the price of biodiesel and petroleum diesel and the status of the biodiesel blenders’ tax credit. The resulting D4 fundamental price closely tracks actual D4 prices. We conclude that RIN price volatility arises because of the design of the RFS and intrinsic features of the U.S. fuel supply system.