■ Abstract Species extinctions and the deterioration of other biodiversity features worldwide have led to the adoption of systematic conservation planning in many regions of the world. As a consequence, various software tools for conservation planning have been developed over the past twenty years. These tools implement algorithms designed to identify conservation area networks for the representation and persistence of biodiversity features. Budgetary, ethical, and other sociopolitical constraints dictate that the prioritized sites represent biodiversity with minimum impact on human interests. Planning tools are typically also used to satisfy these criteria. This chapter reviews both the concepts and technical choices that underlie the development of these tools. Conservation planning problems can be formulated as optimization problems, and we evaluate the suitability of different algorithms for their solution. Finally, we also review some key issues associated with the use of these tools, such as computational efficiency, the effectiveness of taxa and abiotic parameters at choosing surrogates for biodiversity, the process of setting explicit targets of representation for biodiversity surrogates, and
Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning.
Aim: Global indicators of change in the state of terrestrial biodiversity are often derived by intersecting observed or projected changes in the distribution of habitat transformation, or of protected areas, with underlying patterns in the distribution of biodiversity. However the two main sources of data used to account for biodiversity patterns in such assessments -i.e. ecoregional boundaries, and vertebrate species ranges -are typically delineated at a much coarser resolution than the spatial grain of key ecological processes shaping both land-use and biological distributions at landscape scale. Species distribution modelling provides one widely used means of refining the resolution of mapped species distributions, but is limited to a subset of species which is biased both taxonomically and geographically, with some regions of the world lacking adequate data to generate reliable models even for better-known biological groups.Innovation: Macroecological modelling of collective properties of biodiversity (e.g. alpha and beta diversity) as a correlative function of environmental predictors offers an alternative, yet highly complementary, approach to refining the spatial resolution with which patterns in the distribution of biodiversity can be mapped across our planet. Here we introduce a new capability -BILBI (the Biogeographic Infrastructure for Large-scaled Biodiversity Indicators) -which has implemented this approach by integrating advances in macroecological modelling, biodiversity informatics, remote sensing and high-performance computing to assess spatial-temporal change in biodiversity at ~1km grid resolution across the entire terrestrial surface of the planet. The initial implementation of this infrastructure focuses on modelling beta-diversity patterns using a novel extension of generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) designed to extract maximum value from sparsely and unevenly distributed occurrence records for over 400,000 species of plants, invertebrates and vertebrates.Main conclusions: Models generated by BILBI greatly refine the mapping of beta-diversity patterns relative to more traditional biodiversity surrogates such as ecoregions. This capability is already proving of considerable value in informing global biodiversity assessment through: 1) generation of indicators of past-to-present change in biodiversity based on observed changes in habitat condition and protected-area coverage; and 2) projection of potential future change in biodiversity as a consequence of alternative scenarios of global change in drivers and policy options.
Field-based sampling of terrestrial habitats at continental scales is required to build ecosystem observation networks. However, a key challenge for detecting change in ecosystem composition, structure and function is to obtain a representative sample of habitats. Representative sampling contributes to ecological validity when analysing large spatial surveys, but field resources are limited and representativeness may differ markedly from purely practical sampling strategies to statistically rigorous ones. Here, we report a post hoc assessment of the coverage of environmental gradients as a surrogate for ecological coverage by a continental-scale survey of the Australian Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network (TERN). TERN's surveillance program maintains a network of ecosystem observation plots that were init ially established in the rangelands through a stratification method (clustering of bioregions by environment) and Ausplots methodology. Subsequent site selection comprised gap filling combined with opportunistic sampling. Firstly, we confirmed that environmental coverage has been a good surrogate for ecological coverage. The cumulative sampling of environments and plant species composition over time were strongly correlated (based on mean multivariate dispersion; r = 0.93). We then compared the environmental sampling of Ausplots to 100,000 background points and a set of retrospective (virtual) sampling schemes: systematic grid, simple random, stratified random, and generalised random-tessellation stratified (GRTS). Differences were assessed according to sampling densities along environmental gradients, and multivariate dispersion (environmental space represented via multi-dimensional scaling). Ausplots outperformed systematic grid, simple random and GRTS in coverage of environmental space (Tukey HSD of mean dispersion, p < .001). GRTS site selection obtained similar coverage to Ausplots when employing the same bioregional stratification. Stratification by climatic zones generated the highest environmental coverage (p < .001), but the resulting sampling densities over-represented mesic coastal habitats. The Ausplots stratification by bioregions implemented under practical constraints represented complex environments well compared to statistically oriented or spatially even samples. However, potential statistical inference and power also depend on spatial and temporal replication, unbiased site selection, and accurate field measurements relative to the magnitude of change. A key conclusion is that environmental, rather than spatial, stratification is required to maximise ecological coverage across continental ecosystem observation networks.
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