Within the setup of a semi-Markov process in a finite state space, we consider a life insurance contract. First, without the modelling of policyholder behaviour, we show how to calculate the expected cash flow associated with future payments, and to that end we present a version of Kolmogorov's forward integrodifferential equation. The semi-Markov model is then extended to include modelling of surrender and free policy behaviour, and the main result is a modification of Kolmogorov's forward integro-differential equation, such that the cash flow can be calculated without significantly more complexity than the cash flow without policyholder modelling. The result is also demonstrated for the traditional Markov case where there is no duration dependence, and numerical examples are studied.

The problem of the valuation of life insurance payments with policyholder behavior is studied. First, a simple survival model is considered, and it is shown how cash flows without policyholder behavior can be modified to include surrender and free policy behavior by calculation of simple integrals. In the second part, a more general disability model with recovery is studied. Here, cash flows are determined by solving a modified Kolmogorov forward differential equation. We conclude the paper with numerical examples illustrating the methods proposed and the impact of policyholder behavior.

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Abstract:In investment and insurance contracts, certain stipulated payments may depend on the hedging strategy. We study the problem of calculation, hedging and valuation of such cash flows, by considering a payment process in a setup with taxes and investment costs that are functions of the investment returns or the current value of the hedging strategy. We determine the market value of the combined liability and decompose the value into the tax part, the investment cost part and the benefit part, and we determine the associated hedging strategies. Moreover, we identify the expected future tax payments and investment cost cash flows. Our results show that the current Danish insurance accounting practice for taxes is in general conservative, when considered in an idealized setting with symmetric and continuously-paid taxes. Finally, we consider the special case of affine interest rates, where explicit results can be obtained, and study some numerical results.