Aims/hypothesis Islet autoantibodies, in addition to elevated blood glucose, define type 1 diabetes. These autoantibodies are detectable for a variable period of time before diabetes onset. Thus, the occurrence of islet autoantibodies is associated with the beginning of the disease process. The age at, and order in, which autoantibodies appear may be associated with different genetic backgrounds or environmental exposures, or both. Methods Infants with HLA-DR high-risk genotypes (DR3/4, DR4/4, DR4/8 and DR3/3) were enrolled and prospectively followed with standardised autoantibody assessments quarterly throughout the first 4 years of life and then semi-annually thereafter. Results Autoantibodies appeared in 549/8,503 (6.5%) children during 34,091 person-years of follow-up. Autoantibodies at 3 (0.1%) and 6 (0.2%) months of age were rare. Of the 549, 43.7% had islet autoantibodies to insulin (IAA) only, 37.7% had glutamic acid decarboxylase autoantibodies (GADA) only, 13.8% had both GADA and IAA only, 1.6% had insulinoma antigen-2 only and 3.1% had other combinations. The incidence of IAA only peaked within the first year of life and declined over the following 5 years, but GADA only increased until the second year and remained relatively constant. GADA only were more common than IAA only in HLA-DR3/3 children but less common in HLA-DR4/8 children. Conclusions/interpretation Islet autoantibodies can occur very early in life and the order of appearance was related to HLA-DR-DQ genotype.

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OBJECTIVEWe tested the associations between genetic background and selected environmental exposures with respect to islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSInfants with HLA-DR high-risk genotypes were prospectively followed for diabetes-related autoantibodies. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) came from the Illumina ImmunoChip and environmental exposure data were by parental report. Children were followed to age 6 years.RESULTSInsulin autoantibodies occurred earlier than GAD antibody (GADA) and then declined, while GADA incidence rose and remained constant (significant in HLA-DR4 but not in the DR3/3 children). The presence of SNPs rs2476601 (PTPN22) and rs2292239 (ERBB3) demonstrated increased risk of both autoantibodies to insulin (IAA) only and GADA only. SNP rs689 (INS) was protective of IAA only, but not of GADA only. The rs3757247 (BACH2) SNP demonstrated increased risk of GADA only. Male sex, father or sibling as the diabetic proband, introduction of probiotics under 28 days of age, and weight at age 12 months were associated with IAA only, but only father as the diabetic proband and weight at age 12 months were associated with GADA only. Mother as the diabetic proband was not a significant risk factor.CONCLUSIONSThese results show clear differences in the initiation of autoimmunity according to genetic factors and environmental exposures that give rise to IAA or GADA as the first appearing indication of autoimmunity.

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Both measures of variance and means-centric measures of association need to be included when performing contextual analyses. The variance approach, a new aspect of contextual analysis that cannot be interpreted in means-centric terms, allows perspectives to be expanded.