PurposeA recent body of evidence investigated repeated intimate partner violence (IPV) using crime harm indices (the severity of victimisation), instead of crime counts (the number of additional victimisation incidents). Yet, the predictive utility of harm scores in IPV remains unclear – except that high-harm IPV is not usually followed by any additional IPV incidents. The authors take cases of repeat IPV from North Zealand Police, Denmark, to predict subsequent IPV harm and counts based on the level of harm of the first reported IPV offence.Design/methodology/approachUsing the Danish crime harm index (CHI) to estimate harm levels, non-linear regression models are applied (due to the non-linear nature of the data) to show that the CHI level of the index offence validly predicts gains in future CHI but does not predict IPV counts.FindingsThe findings suggest that whilst high-harm IPV is a rare event and repeat high-harm IPV even rarer, when they do occur, escalation in harm is likely to occur.Practical implicationsA simple metric of harm of the first reported IPV offence can validly predict future harm – however, scholars should apply more fitting analytical techniques than crude descriptive statistics, which fail to take into account the non-linear distribution of police records.Originality/valueThis is the first study to show the value of predicting future harm based on prior harm in IPV.

Danish studies of intimate partner violence (ipv) using police data are scarce, in part because access to records had been limited. The present study reduces critical gaps in the scholarly literature by examining ipv offending patterns in Denmark, using nearly 10,000 ipv incidents reported to the North Zealand Police, Denmark (2015–2019). We explore a common framework for analysing ipv, by observing (a) frequency, (b) severity, (c) intermittency, (d) escalation, and (e) concentrations of ipv. Harm is estimated using the Danish Crime Harm Index, which is based on the sentencing guidelines as an objective rod for estimating severity. Findings support the gender-based explanation for ipv, with males causing considerably more and higher harm than female offenders. Furthermore, the likelihood of re-offending only predicable not for 1/3 of the ipv offender population and rarely for high-harm incidents as they usually have no prior or no subsequent contact with the police. While there is a tendency towards escalation of harm between contacts to the police for all offenders, no such consistent pattern is discernible for ipv offenders who cause serious harm to their victims. Implications for policy and future research are discussed.