During embryogenesis, the developmental potential of initially pluripotent cells becomes progressively restricted as they transit to lineage restricted states. The pluripotent cells of Xenopus blastula-stage embryos are an ideal system in which to study cell state transitions during developmental decision-making, as gene expression dynamics can be followed at high temporal resolution. Here we use transcriptomics to interrogate the process by which pluripotent cells transit to four different lineage-restricted states: neural progenitors, epidermis, endoderm and ventral mesoderm, providing quantitative insights into the dynamics of Waddingtons landscape. Our findings shed light on why the neural progenitor state is the default lineage state for pluripotent cells, and uncover novel components of lineage-specific gene regulation. These data reveal an unexpected overlap in the transcriptional responses to BMP4/7 and activin signaling, and provide mechanistic insight into how the timing of signaling inputs such as BMP are temporally controlled to ensure correct lineage decisions. Together these analyses provide quantitative insights into the logic and dynamics of developmental decision making in early embryos.