Purpose: The recent growth in pan-ethnic expanded carrier screening (ECS) has raised questions about how such panels might be designed and evaluated systematically. Design principles for ECS panels might improve clinical detection of at-risk couples and facilitate objective discussions of panel choice.Methods: Guided by medical-society statements, we propose a method for the design of ECS panels that aims to maximize the aggregate and per-disease sensitivity and specificity across a range of Mendelian disorders considered serious by a systematic classification scheme. We evaluated this method retrospectively using results from 474,644 de-identified carrier screens. We then constructed several idealized panels to highlight strengths and limitations of different ECS methodologies.Results: Based on modeled fetal risks for "severe" and "profound" diseases, a commercially available ECS panel (Counsyl) is expected to detect 183 affected conceptuses per 100,000 US births. A screen's sensitivity is greatly impacted by two factors: (i) the methodology used (e.g., full-exon sequencing finds more affected conceptuses than targeted genotyping) and (ii) the detection rate of the screen for diseases with high prevalence and complex molecular genetics (e.g., fragile X syndrome). Conclusion:The described approaches enable principled, quantitative evaluation of which diseases and methodologies are appropriate for pan-ethnic expanded carrier screening.

Purpose: Carrier status associates strongly with genetic ancestry, yet current carrier screening guidelines recommend testing for a limited set of conditions based on a patient's self-reported ethnicity. Ethnicity, which can reflect both genetic ancestry and cultural factors (e.g., religion), may be imperfectly known or communicated by patients. We sought to quantitatively assess the efficacy and equity with which ethnicity-based carrier screening captures recessive disease risk. Methods: For 93,419 individuals undergoing a 96-gene expanded carrier screen (ECS), correspondence was assessed among carrier status, self-reported ethnicity, and a dual-component genetic ancestry (e.g., 75% African/25% European) calculated from sequencing data. Results: Self-reported ethnicity was an imperfect indicator of genetic ancestry, with 9% of individuals having >50% genetic ancestry from a lineage inconsistent with self-reported ethnicity. Limitations of self-reported ethnicity led to missed carriers in atrisk populations: for 10 ECS conditions, patients with intermediate genetic ancestry backgrounds-who did not self-report the associated ethnicity-had significantly elevated carrier risk. Finally, for 7 of the 16 conditions included in current screening guidelines, most carriers were not from the population the guideline aimed to serve. Conclusion: Substantial and disproportionate risk for recessive disease is not detected when carrier screening is based on ethnicity, leading to inequitable reproductive care.

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The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and the American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics (ACMG) suggest carrier screening panel design criteria intended to ensure meaningful results. This study used a data-driven approach to interpret the criteria to identify guidelines-consistent panels. Methods: Carrier frequencies in >460,000 individuals across 11 races/ethnicities were used to assess carrier frequency. Other criteria were interpreted on the basis of published data. A total of 176 conditions were then evaluated. Stringency thresholds were set as suggested by ACOG and/or ACMG or by evaluating conditions already recommended by ACOG and ACMG. Results: Forty and 75 conditions had carrier frequencies of ≥1 in 100 and ≥1 in 200, respectively; 175 had a well-defined phenotype; and 165 met at least 1 severity criterion and had an onset early in life. Thirty-seven conditions met conservative thresholds, including a carrier frequency of ≥1 in 100, and 74 conditions met permissive thresholds, including a carrier frequency of ≥1 in 200; thus, both were identified as guidelines-consistent panels. Conclusion: Clear panel design criteria are needed to ensure quality and consistency among carrier screening panels. Evidence-based analyses of criteria resulted in the identification of guidelines-consistent panels of 37 and 74 conditions.

PurposeThe recent growth in pan-ethnic expanded carrier screening (ECS) has raised questions about how such panels might be designed and evaluated systematically. Design principles for ECS panels might improve clinical detection of at-risk couples and facilitate objective discussions of panel choice.MethodsGuided by medical-society statements, we propose a method for the design of ECS panels that aims to maximize the aggregate and per-disease sensitivity and specificity across a range of Mendelian disorders considered serious by a systematic classification scheme. We evaluated this method retrospectively using results from 474,644 de-identified carrier screens. We then constructed several idealized panels to highlight strengths and limitations of different ECS methodologies.ResultsBased on modeled fetal risks for “severe” and “profound” diseases, a commercially available ECS panel (Counsyl) is expected to detect 183 affected conceptuses per 100,000 US births. A screen’s sensitivity is greatly impacted by two factors: (1) the methodology used (e.g., full-exon sequencing finds more affected conceptuses than targeted genotyping), and (2) the detection rate of the screen for diseases with high prevalence and complex molecular genetics (e.g., fragile X syndrome).ConclusionThe described approaches allow principled, quantitative evaluation of which diseases and methodologies are appropriate for pan-ethnic expanded carrier screening.