To address the need for a high quality data set based upon field observations suitable for parameterization, calibration, and validation of terrestrial biosphere models, we have developed a comprehensive global database on net primary productivity (NPP). We have compiled field measurements of biomass and associated environmental data for multiple study sites in major grassland types worldwide. Where sufficient data were available, we compared aboveground and total NPP estimated by six computational methods (algorithms) for 31 grassland sites. As has been found previously, NPP estimates were 2±5 times higher using methods which accounted for the dynamics of dead matter, compared with what is still the most commonly applied estimate of NPP (maximum peak live biomass). It is suggested that assumptions such as the use of peak biomass as an indicator of NPP in grasslands may apply only within certain subbiomes, e.g. temperate steppe grasslands. Additional data on belowground dynamics, or other reliable estimates of belowground productivity, are required if grasslands are to be fully appreciated for their role in the global carbon cycle.

High-latitude regions are experiencing rapid and extensive changes in ecosystem composition and function as the result of increases in average air temperature. Increasing air temperatures have led to widespread thawing and degradation of permafrost, which in turn has affected ecosystems, socioeconomics, and the carbon cycle of high latitudes. Here we overcome complex interactions among surface and subsurface conditions to map nearsurface permafrost through decision and regression tree approaches that statistically and spatially extend field observations using remotely sensed imagery, climatic data, and thematic maps of a wide range of surface and subsurface biophysical characteristics. The data fusion approach generated medium-resolution (30-m pixels) maps of near-surface (within 1 m) permafrost, active-layer thickness, and associated uncertainty estimates throughout mainland Alaska. Our calibrated models (overall test accuracy of~85%) were used to quantify changes in permafrost distribution under varying future climate scenarios assuming no other changes in biophysical factors. Models indicate that near-surface permafrost underlies 38% of mainland Alaska and that near-surface permafrost will disappear on 16 to 24% of the landscape by the end of the 21st Century. Simulations suggest that near-surface permafrost degradation is more probable in central regions of Alaska than more northerly regions. Taken together, these results have obvious implications for potential remobilization of frozen soil carbon pools under warmer temperatures. Additionally, warmer and drier conditions may increase fire activity and severity, which may exacerbate rates of permafrost thaw and carbon remobilization relative to climate alone. The mapping of permafrost distribution across Alaska is important for land-use planning, environmental assessments, and a wide-array of geophysical studies.

Geoderma 167 (2011) 71-84. doi:10.1016/j.geoderma.2011.10.006Received by publisher: 2010-11-09Harvest Date: 2016-01-04 12:19:48DOI: 10.1016/j.geoderma.2011.10.006Page Range: 71-8

Abstract. It is important to understand how upland ecosystems of Alaska, which are estimated to occupy 84% of the state (i.e., 1,237,774 km 2 ), are influencing and will influence statewide carbon (C) dynamics in the face of ongoing climate change. We coupled fire disturbance and biogeochemical models to assess the relative effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), climate, logging and fire regimes on the historical and future C balance of upland ecosystems for the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. At the end of the historical period ) of our analysis, we estimate that upland ecosystems of Alaska store~50 Pg C (with~90% of the C in soils), and gained 3.26 Tg C/yr. Three of the LCCs had gains in total ecosystem C storage, while the Northwest Boreal LCC lost C (À6.01 Tg C/yr) because of increases in fire activity. Carbon exports from logging affected only the North Pacific LCC and represented less than 1% of the state's net primary production (NPP). The analysis for the future time period (2010-2099) consisted of six simulations driven by climate outputs from two climate models for three emission scenarios. Across the climate scenarios, total ecosystem C storage increased between 19.5 and 66.3 Tg C/yr, which represents 3.4% to 11.7% increase in Alaska upland's storage. We conducted additional simulations to attribute these responses to environmental changes. This analysis showed that atmospheric CO 2 fertilization was the main driver of ecosystem C balance. By comparing future simulations with constant and with increasing atmospheric CO 2 , we estimated that the sensitivity of NPP was 4.8% per 100 ppmv, but NPP becomes less sensitive to CO 2 increase throughout the 21st century. Overall, our analyses suggest that the decreasing CO 2 sensitivity of NPP and the increasing sensitivity of heterotrophic respiration to air temperature, in addition to the increase in C loss from wildfires weakens the C sink from upland ecosystems of Alaska and will ultimately lead to a source of CO 2 to the atmosphere beyond 2100. Therefore, we conclude that the increasing regional C sink we estimate for the 21st century will most likely be transitional.