The phenomenon of kin-oriented help, according to inclusive fitness theory, should be of crucial importance with respect to the process of reproduction. This is due to the fact that the devoted time and resources might indirectly contribute to the reproductive performance of a donor. This study aimed at analyzing the kin effects on fertility in order to check whether help received from kinsmen enhance a recipient's reproduction in terms of parity transition risk, completed fertility, and the number of survivors. The data came from reconstitution of church registers from Bejsce parish, Poland. To estimate the kin effect, regression models for count outcomes and techniques of multilevel event history analysis were applied. The analyses have shown that completed fertility and parity-specific transition risks are strongly influenced by various kin groups. Moreover, a multilevel hazard model revealed differences in the patterns of the kin influence among controlled fertility than among natural fertility birth cohorts. Female reproductive outcome is influenced mainly by the presence of siblings and postreproductive helpers (grandparents). However, there is a negative impact of so-called helpers-at-the-nest (older children in the household) on parity transition risks.
We introduce the two-sex net reproduction rate (2SNRR) and the two-sex total fertility rate (2STFR)-two demographic indicators that reflect the number of children born, given age specific fertility and mortality of the adults. The main quality of these indicators is that they measure the childbearing behaviour of both women and men. The indicators have intuitive value, since they tell us to what extent adults are replaced by children. While the traditional net reproduction rate (NRR) describes general replacement trends among women only, the 2SNRR is an indicator of a population's growth potential, irrespective of sex. We demonstrate the use of the indicators with data from Bejsce parish in Poland for the period 1800-1967 and with data from UN projections for China for future years. We discuss the consequences for our understanding of fertility trends when sex ratios deviate from normal levels.
This paper has two main goals. The first is to review the context for studying infant mortality, which includes a review of the theoretical framework, the covariates used to examine mortality over the first 60 months of life, and the major findings of empirical studies. Second, the paper adds some new empirical evidence that comes from the longitudinal reconstitution of church registers of Bejsce parish, located in the south of Poland. This rich database allows for an analysis of mortality trends of cohorts born between the 18 th and 20 th centuries in the parish. The analysis includes a reconstruction of descriptive measures of infant and childhood mortality, and a hazard model of mortality over the first 60 months of life. The hazard model has been calculated for each cohort separately in order to demonstrate the change in the relative importance of analyzed factors during the process of mortality decline in the parish. Obtained mortality patterns are discussed with reference to the theoretical context presented in the first part of the paper. 1. Introduction Aims of the paperThis paper's aim is to analyze infant and childhood mortality patterns in a historical population which underwent the demographic and epidemiologic transitions. This empirical analysis refers to a theoretical context and a review of up-to-date research, which presented in the first part of the paper. Although the topic of infant and childhood mortality is one of the most popular topics in empirical demography, the motivation to raise this issue once again results from a unique opportunity to study the records of early mortality patterns over 200 years, within one historical population of Bejsce parish, located in the south of Poland. This provides a good opportunity to trace changes in the relative importance of various mortality factors during the change in fertility levels from high to low In traditional and historical societies, infant mortality was one of the main barriers preventing the growth of populations. Over the course of the demographic transition, the improvement in infant and child survival leads to rapid population growth, and, subsequently, to a shift in reproductive behavior (Galloway, Lee, and Hammel 1998;Matthiessen and McCann 1978;Schofield, Reher, and Bideau 1991). From this perspective, the decline in fertility might be seen as a response of couples to the improvement in the survival chances of their offspring. Therefore, assuming they had no deliberate control over reproduction, most of the couples "overproduced" children. This overproduction was related to the anticipation of high and varying mortality levels during first months and years after childbirth.For that reason, the topic of mortality at young ages is one of the "cornerstones" in demography, and it has been used for the description of demographic transitions in historical European societies (for instance: Bideau, Desjardins, and Brignoli 1997). Subsequently, elaborated models and methods were applied to the analysis of developing countries which e...
The article presents both theoretical and empirical aspects of studies on fertility intentions in the context of factors shaping fecundity. In most contemporary societies couples declare their preference for two children. These declarations stand in opposition to registered total fertility rates, both period and cohort rates, which rarely reach value of 2 in Europe. The gap between fertility intentions and their realization might be partially explained by the impact of reproductive ageing (biological factors) which may play an increasingly significant role due to postponement of childbearing. A natural pattern of a decrease in fecundity over age might influence on reproductive outcome of women who postpone to conceive a child, and consequently results in an increased risk of involuntary childlessness or lower parity progression ratios. The data coming from the Generations and Gender Survey in Poland (GGS-PL) makes it possible to check the main hypothesis about an age-specific decrease in fecundity, which is manifested by a prolonged waiting time to pregnancy. The data were collected via the retrospective questions included into the GGS-PL questionnaire. Results show that there is a significant increase in waiting time to pregnancy among women older than 34 years. This finding supports theoretical predictions concerning the age-related decrease in fecundity. Its relevance is discussed by referring to explanations of the gap between fertility intentions and completed fertility in terms of voluntary and involuntary childlessness, as well as biological factors related to reproductive ageing.
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