To evaluate the performance of the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 as mortality risk assessment model. DESIGN:This prospective study included all admissions 30 days to 18 years old for 12 months during 2016 and 2017. Data gathered included the following: age and gender, diagnosis and reason for PICU admission, data specific for the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 calculation, PICU outcomes (death or survival), and length of PICU stay.SETTING: Nine units that care for children within tertiary or quaternary academic hospitals in South Africa. PATIENTS:All admissions 30 days to 18 years old, excluding premature infants, children who died within 2 hours of admission, or children transferred to other PICUs, and those older than 18 years old. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:There were 3,681 admissions of which 2,253 (61.3%) were male. The median age was 18 months (interquartile range, 6-59.5 mo). There were 354 deaths (9.6%). The Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 predicted 277.47 deaths (7.5%). The overall standardized mortality ratio was 1.28. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.83). The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test statistic was 174.4 (p < 0.001). Standardized mortality ratio for all age groups was greater than 1. Standardized mortality ratio for diagnostic subgroups was mostly greater than 1 except for those whose reason for PICU admission was classified as accident, toxin and envenomation, and metabolic which had an standardized mortality ratio less than 1. There were similar proportions of respiratory patients, but significantly greater proportions of neurologic and cardiac (including postoperative) patients in the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 derivation cohort than the South African cohort. In contrast, the South African cohort contained a significantly greater proportion of miscellaneous (including injury/accident victims) and postoperative noncardiac patients. CONCLUSIONS:The Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 discrimination between death and survival among South African units was good. Case-mix differences between these units and the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 derivation cohort may partly explain the poor calibration. We need to recalibrate Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 to the local setting.
Despite being vaccine-preventable, hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains the seventh leading cause of mortality in the world. In South Africa (SA), over 1.9 million people are chronically infected with HBV, and 70% of all Black chronic carriers are infected with HBV subgenotype A1. The virus remains a significant burden on public health in SA despite the introduction of an infant immunization program implemented in 1995 and the availability of effective treatment for chronic HBV infection. In addition, the high prevalence of HIV infection amplifies HBV replication, predisposes patients to chronicity, and complicates management of the infection. HBV research has made significant progress leading to better understanding of HBV epidemiology and management challenges in the SA context. This has led to recent revision of the national HBV infection management guidelines. Research on developing new vaccines and therapies is underway and progress has been made with designing potentially curative gene therapies against HBV. This review summarizes research carried out in SA on HBV molecular biology, epidemiology, treatment, and vaccination strategies.
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