With rapid advancements in renewable energy sources, billing mechanism (AMI), and latest communication technologies, the traditional control networks are evolving towards wise, versatile and collaborative Smart Grids (SG). The short term power load forecasting of individual as well as group of similar energy customers is critical for effective operation and management of SG. Forecasting power load of individual as well as group of similar energy customers is challenging compared to aggregate load forecasting of a residential community. The main reason is the high volatility and uncertainty involved for the case of individual and group of similar energy customers. Several machine/deep learning models have been developed in the recent past for forecasting load of individual energy customers, but such explorations are ineffective due to the requirement of one trained model for every energy customer, which is practically not feasible. We plan to build a deep learning model using convolutional neural network (CNN) layers in pyramidal architecture for effective load forecasting for a group of similar energy-profile customers. Initially, we grouped a subset of energy customers from database of Smart Grid Smart City (SGSC) into clusters using DBSCAN approach. The CNN layers are used for extracting feature from historical load of each cluster. The extracted feature of similar energy-profile customers (grouped based on clustering) is combined to make training-databases for each cluster. We have used the power load data from SGSC project, which contain thousands of individual household energy customers data. The developed Pyramid-CNN model is trained based on these sets of databases. The trained model is evaluated on randomly selected customers from few clusters. We obtained significantly improved forecasting results for randomly selected user from different clusters. Our adapted strategy of clustering based model training resulted in upto 10 percent MAPE improvement for the energy customers. The essence of our work is that energy customers can be grouped into clusters and then representative model could be developed/trained, which can accurately forecast power load for individual energy-customer. This approach is highly feasible, as we do not need to train a model per energy customer and still achieve competitive forecasting results.
Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) help in making predictions and businesses to make key decisions that are beneficial for them. In the case of the online shopping business, it's very important to find trends in the data and get knowledge of features that helps drive the success of the business. In this research, a dataset of 12,330 records of customers has been analyzed who visited an online shopping website over a period of one year. The main objective of this research is to find features that are relevant in terms of correctly predicting the purchasing decisions made by visiting customers and build ML models which could make correct predictions on unseen data in the future. The permutation feature importance approach has been used to get the importance of features according to the output variable (Revenue). Five ML models i.e., decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extra tree (ET) classifier, Neural networks (NN), and Logistic regression (LR) have been used to make predictions on the unseen data in the future. The performance of each model has been discussed in detail using performance measurement techniques such as accuracy score, precision, recall, F1 score, and ROC-AUC curve. RF model is the best model among all five chosen based on accuracy score of 90% and F1 score of 79% followed by extra tree classifier. Hence, our study indicates that RF model can be used by online retailing businesses for predicting consumer buying behaviour. Our research also reveals the importance of page value as a key feature for capturing online purchasing trends. This may give a clue to future businesses who can focus on this specific feature and can find key factors behind page value success which in turn will help the online shopping business.
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