Introduction Despite strong evidence linking amyloid beta (Aβ) to Alzheimer's disease, most clinical trials have shown no clinical efficacy for reasons that remain unclear. To understand why, we developed a quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model for seven therapeutics: aducanumab, crenezumab, solanezumab, bapineuzumab, elenbecestat, verubecestat, and semagacestat. Methods Ordinary differential equations were used to model the production, transport, and aggregation of Aβ; pharmacology of the drugs; and their impact on plaque. Results The calibrated model predicts that endogenous plaque turnover is slow, with an estimated half‐life of 2.75 years. This is likely why beta‐secretase inhibitors have a smaller effect on plaque reduction. Of the mechanisms tested, the model predicts binding to plaque and inducing antibody‐dependent cellular phagocytosis is the best approach for plaque reduction. Discussion A QSP model can provide novel insights to clinical results. Our model explains the results of clinical trials and provides guidance for future therapeutic development.

Empirical pharmacokinetic models are used to explain the pharmacokinetics of the antiviral drug tenofovir (TFV) and its metabolite TFV diphosphate (TFV-DP) in peripheral blood mononuclear cells. These empirical models lack the ability to explain differences between the disposition of TFV-DP in HIV-infected patients vs. healthy individuals. Such differences may lie in the mechanisms of TFV transport and phosphorylation. Therefore, we developed an exploratory model based on mechanistic mass transport principles and enzyme kinetics to examine the uptake and phosphorylation kinetics of TFV. TFV-DP median Cmax from the model was 38.5 fmol/106 cells, which is bracketed by two reported healthy volunteer studies (38 and 51 fmol/106 cells). The model presented provides a foundation for exploration of TFV uptake and phosphorylation kinetics for various routes of TFV administration and can be updated as more is known on actual mechanisms of cellular transport of TFV.

Osteoporosis is a disorder of the bones in which they are weakened to the extent that they become more prone to fracture. There are various forms of osteoporosis: some of them are induced by drugs, and others occur as a chronic progressive disorder as an individual gets older. As the median age of the population rises across the world, the chronic form of the bone disease is drawing attention as an important worldwide health issue. Developing new treatments for osteoporosis and comparing them with existing treatments are complicated processes due to current acceptance by regulatory authorities of bone mineral density (BMD) and fracture risk as clinical end points, which require clinical trials to be large, prolonged, and expensive to determine clinically significant impacts in BMD and fracture risk. Moreover, changes in BMD and fracture risk are not always correlated, with some clinical trials showing BMD improvement without a reduction in fractures. More recently, bone turnover markers specific to bone formation and resorption have been recognized that reflect bone physiology at a cellular level. These bone turnover markers change faster than BMD and fracture risk, and mathematically linking the biomarkers via a computational model to BMD and/or fracture risk may help in predicting BMD and fracture risk changes over time during the progression of a disease or when under treatment. Here, we discuss important concepts of bone physiology, osteoporosis, treatment options, mathematical modeling of osteoporosis, and the use of these models by the pharmaceutical industry and the Food and Drug Administration.