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This paper used the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model, Version 3 (RegCM3) and rain gauge data selected from the Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) from 1990 to 2008 to investigate the extent and nature of variability in the annual rainfall and pattern of the raining seasons in Ghana. In the study, six meteorological stations selected from three rainfall distribution zones according to the divisions of the GMet were used to study the pattern of rainfall and its departure from the normal trend. The study also assessed the performance of the RegCM3 simulation with reference to the observed gauge data. Results confirmed the unimodal nature of the rainfall annual cycle over the northern belt and bi-modal rainfall nature over the middle and southern belts of Ghana. Negative departures of rainfall implying consistent downward trend were observed at all the stations. Our analysis showed that RegCM3 captured the average rainfall over Ghana but demonstrated an underestimation as compared to the observed gauge data. The model also had difficulty stimulating the departures accurately in direction and in magnitude in all the stations except for Accra where RegCM3 simulated the right direction of the departures.

We present evidence from the analysis of gridded annual rainfall data that, increased variability and declining rainfall totals are the main cause of declining lake levels in the Volta basin above the Akosombo Dam. West Africa has undergone a period of diminished rainfall, punctuated by a series of severe droughts and marked by a shift in rainfall regime. As a result, lake levels behind the hydroelectric impoundment have fluctuated so widely at times that, power has had to be rationed. The trends in the spatial and temporal variability of annual rainfall in the riparian nations explain the low impoundment levels frequent in recent decades. The drying of Burkina Faso and Mali is particularly marked and synchronous to an apparent shift in the rainfall regime in Ghana towards a longer dry season and vanishing short dry spell, the effects which tend to negate each other. The various regional and temporal associations between El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) are investigated as a possible cause of variation across the basin. The strengths of these associations and low frequency shifts suggest an unfortunate correspondence between national and climatological boundaries which may serve to heighten regional political tensions resulting from ENSO effects. Lack of re-investment in the Akosombo Dam as a result of management policies, political and pre-construction contractual agreements have all conspired in recent decades to make these hydro-climatological changes more devastating.