This study assessed the long term structure of forest age groups and the possibility of a domestic wood supply based on the wood industry buildup master plan. Wood is assumed to be supplied by main cutting, renewal, cutting damaged trees and thinning. The cohort equation was applied to identify the dynamic changes in forest area according to the age groups. The sixth age group, which composed of only 7.7% in 2010, is expected to comprise 73% of the total production land. The area distributions of the other age groups are expected to be between 5.3 -5.6%. Consequently, the production volume from main cutting accounts for approximately 93 -95% of the total production. The production volume from thinning, which depends on the area of the second and third age groups, will be decreased gradually. When the volume of domestic timber supply was compared with the timber demand from a previous study, the self-sufficiency of timber demand will be approximately 83% in 2050.

This study is aimed at developing a supply-demand model of wood products, and outlook for midterm and long-term supply and demand for each products. The main wood products include sawnwood, plywood, particle board, fiberboard (MDF), and pulp. The partial equilibrium model is composed of supply function, import demand function, demand function, price relation function. With given parameters the outlook for year 2050 says that sawnwood, plywood, and fiberboard for domestic productions and imports are decreased. This may result from the increase of log prices from the inside and outside of the country because of the propensity for environment protection and the resource nationalism. On the other hand the supply of particle board and pulp will increase because they are made from wasted wood and chips.

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