SUMMARY Poyang Lake is situated within the East Asian Flyway, a migratory corridor for waterfowl that also encompasses Guangdong Province, China, the epicenter of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1. The lake is the largest freshwater body in China and a significant congregation site for waterfowl; however, surrounding rice fields and poultry grazing have created an overlap with wild waterbirds, a situation conducive to avian influenza transmission. Reports of HPAI H5N1 in healthy wild ducks at Poyang Lake have raised concerns about the potential of resilient free-ranging birds to disseminate the virus. Yet the role wild ducks play in connecting regions of HPAI H5N1 outbreak in Asia is hindered by a lack of information about their migratory ecology. During 2007–08 we marked wild ducks at Poyang Lake with satellite transmitters to examine the location and timing of spring migration and identify any spatiotemporal relationship with HPAI H5N1 outbreaks. Species included the Eurasian wigeon (Anas penelope), northern pintail (Anas acuta), common teal (Anas crecca), falcated teal (Anas falcata), Baikal teal (Anas formosa), mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), garganey (Anas querquedula), and Chinese spotbill (Anas poecilohyncha). These wild ducks (excluding the resident mallard and Chinese spotbill ducks) followed the East Asian Flyway along the coast to breeding areas in northern China, eastern Mongolia, and eastern Russia. None migrated west toward Qinghai Lake (site of the largest wild bird epizootic), thus failing to demonstrate any migratory connection to the Central Asian Flyway. A newly developed Brownian bridge spatial analysis indicated that HPAI H5N1 outbreaks reported in the flyway were related to latitude and poultry density but not to the core migration corridor or to wetland habitats. Also, we found a temporal mismatch between timing of outbreaks and wild duck movements. These analyses depend on complete or representative reporting of outbreaks, but by documenting movements of wild waterfowl, we present ecological knowledge that better informs epidemiological investigations seeking to explain and predict the spread of avian influenza viruses.

A unique pattern of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks has emerged along the Central Asia Flyway, where infection of wild birds has been reported with steady frequency since 2005. We assessed the potential for two hosts of HPAI H5N1, the bar-headed goose (Anser indicus) and ruddy shelduck (Tadorna tadorna), to act as agents for virus dispersal along this ‘thoroughfare’. We used an eco-virological approach to compare the migration of 141 birds marked with GPS satellite transmitters during 2005–2010 with: 1) the spatio-temporal patterns of poultry and wild bird outbreaks of HPAI H5N1, and 2) the trajectory of the virus in the outbreak region based on phylogeographic mapping. We found that biweekly utilization distributions (UDs) for 19.2% of bar-headed geese and 46.2% of ruddy shelduck were significantly associated with outbreaks. Ruddy shelduck showed highest correlation with poultry outbreaks owing to their wintering distribution in South Asia, where there is considerable opportunity for HPAI H5N1 spillover from poultry. Both species showed correlation with wild bird outbreaks during the spring migration, suggesting they may be involved in the northward movement of the virus. However, phylogeographic mapping of HPAI H5N1 clades 2.2 and 2.3 did not support dissemination of the virus in a northern direction along the migration corridor. In particular, two subclades (2.2.1 and 2.3.2) moved in a strictly southern direction in contrast to our spatio-temporal analysis of bird migration. Our attempt to reconcile the disciplines of wild bird ecology and HPAI H5N1 virology highlights prospects offered by both approaches as well as their limitations.

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We examined whether host traits influenced the occurrence of avian influenza virus (AIV) in Anatidae (ducks, geese, swans) at wintering sites in California's Central Valley. In total, 3487 individuals were sampled at Sacramento National Wildlife Refuge and Conaway Ranch Duck Club during the hunting season of 2007-08. Of the 19 Anatidae species sampled, prevalence was highest in the northern shoveler (5.09%), followed by the ring-necked duck (2.63%), American wigeon (2.57%), bufflehead (2.50%), greater white-fronted goose (2.44%), and cinnamon teal (1.72%). Among host traits, density of lamellae (filtering plates) of dabbling ducks was significantly associated with AIV prevalence and the number of subtypes shed by the host, suggesting that feeding methods may influence exposure to viral particles.

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