Large herbivore populations respond strongly to remotely sensed measures of primary productivity. Whereas most studies in seasonal environments have focused on the effects of spring plant phenology on juvenile survival, recent studies demonstrated that autumn nutrition also plays a crucial role. We tested for both direct and indirect (through body mass) effects of spring and autumn phenology on winter survival of 2315 mule deer fawns across a wide range of environmental conditions in Idaho, USA. We first performed a functional analysis that identified spring and autumn as the key periods for structuring the among-population and among-year variation of primary production (approximated from 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)) along the growing season. A path analysis showed that early winter precipitation and direct and indirect effects of spring and autumn NDVI functional components accounted for 45% of observed variation in overwinter survival. The effect size of autumn phenology on body mass was about twice that of spring phenology, while direct effects of phenology on survival were similar between spring and autumn. We demonstrate that the effects of plant phenology vary across ecosystems, and that in semi-arid systems, autumn may be more important than spring for overwinter survival.

Many semi‐arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long‐term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush‐obligate wildlife species (notably Greater Sage‐Grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. The leading and trailing edges of potential climate‐driven distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. Although several processes contribute to distribution shifts, regeneration is a fundamental requirement, especially for species with episodic regeneration patterns, such as big sagebrush. We used a process‐based regeneration model for big sagebrush to simulate potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions. We estimated current and future regeneration under 2070–2099 CMIP5 climate conditions at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results supported expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability at the trailing edge compared to current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge will become more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush. At the trailing edge, increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. We observed reliable changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges, consistent with previous predictions. However, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at higher elevation sites. Decreasing regeneration probability at the trailing edge suggests that it will be difficult to preserve and/or restore big sagebrush in these areas. Conversely, increasing regeneration probability at the leading edge suggests a growing potential for conflicts in management goals between maintaining existing grasslands and croplands by preventing sagebrush expansion versus accepting a shift in plant community composition to sagebrush dominance.

Landscape design is a conservation planning process, described in the landscape ecology literature, proposed to rectify the knowledge and implementation gap in planning that have limited the effectiveness of many conservation planning efforts. Use of landscape design bridges this gap through increased emphasis on the interdisciplinary nature of conservation planning and engagement of a stakeholder advisory team to create a conservation plan that resonates with biological, cultural, social, and economic realities of the area concerned. We define landscape design as a conservation planning process that integrates societal goals and values with established biological conservation goals, using science grounded in landscape ecology to describe future scenarios where specific and measurable biological goals can be attained. First, we describe a landscape design process and provide examples from the literature and partnerships such as Connect the Connecticut and the Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperative. We follow by discussing a case study of a landscape design effort to conserve playa wetlands to support waterfowl goals for migrating waterfowl established in the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. We further highlight characteristics of a successfully completed landscape design. We conclude that landscape design is a powerful process that goes beyond identifying high‐priority conservation assets and intended to be an action‐oriented process. Landscape design provides a framework for ensuring that conservation planning does not occur in a vacuum by ensuring social, cultural, and economic needs of people are recognized before valuable conservation dollars are expended. It provides a mechanism for understanding the effects of future landscape drivers on natural resources and engages stakeholders in proactive discussions regarding conservation. The final result is a commitment by a partnership to a set of actions that will achieve the stated conservation goal. © 2016 The Wildlife Society.

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