Background: Endometrial ablation (EA) is a frequently used treatment for abnormal uterine bleeding, mainly due to the low risks, low costs and short recovery time associated with the procedure. On the short term, it seems successful, long-term follow-up however, shows decreasing patient satisfaction as well as treament efficacy. There even is a postablation hysterectomy rate up to 21%. Multiple factors seem to`influence the outcome of EA. Due to dissimilarities in and variety of these factors, it has not been possible so far to predict the success rate of EA based on pre-operative factors. Therefore, the aim of this study is to develop two prediction models to help counsel patients for failure of EA or necessity of surgical re-intervention within 2 years after EA. Methods: We designed a retrospective two-centred cohort study in Catharina Hospital, Eindhoven and Elkerliek Hospital, Helmond, both non-university teaching hospitals in the Netherlands. The study population consisted of 446 pre-menopausal women who underwent EA for abnormal uterine bleeding, with a minimum follow-up time of 2 years. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to create the prediction models. Results: The mean age of the patients was 43.8 years (range 20-55), 97.3% had complaints of menorrhagia, 57.4% of dysmenorrhoea and 61.0% had complaints of intermittent or irregular bleeding. 18.8% of patients still needed a hysterectomy after EA. The risk of re-intervention was significantly greater in women with menstrual duration > 7 days or a previous caesarean section, while pre-operative menorrhagia was significantly associated with success of EA. Younger age, parity ≥ 5 and dysmenorrhea were significant multivariate predictors in both models. These predictors were used to develop prediction models, which had a C-index of 0.71 and 0.68 respectively. Conclusion: We propose two multivariate models to predict the chance of failure and surgical re-intervention within 2 years after EA. Due to the permanent character of EA, the increasing number of post-operative failure and re-interventions, these prediction models could be useful for both the doctor and patient and may contribute to the shared decision-making.

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Background Five percent of pre-menopausal women experience abnormal uterine bleeding. Endometrial ablation (EA) is one of the treatment options for this common problem. However, this technique shows a decrease in patient satisfaction and treatment efficacy on the long term. Study objective To develop a prediction model to predict surgical re-intervention (for example re-ablation or hysterectomy) within 2 years after endometrial ablation (EA) by using machine learning (ML). The performance of the developed prediction model was compared with a previously published multivariate logistic regression model (LR). Design This retrospective cohort study, with a minimal follow-up time of 2 years, included 446 pre-menopausal women (18+) that underwent an EA for complaints of heavy menstrual bleeding. The performance of the ML and the LR model was compared using the area under the receiving operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results We found out that the ML model (AUC of 0.65 (95% CI 0.56–0.74)) is not superior compared to the LR model (AUC of 0.71 (95% CI 0.64–0.78)) in predicting the outcome of surgical re-intervention within 2 years after EA. Based on the ML model, dysmenorrhea and duration of menstruation have the highest impact on the surgical re-intervention rate. Conclusion Although machine learning techniques are gaining popularity in development of clinical prediction tools, this study shows that ML is not necessarily superior to the traditional statistical LR techniques. Both techniques should be considered when developing a clinical prediction model. Both models can identify the clinical predictors to surgical re-intervention and contribute to the shared decision-making process in the clinical practice.