World Health Organization guidelines recommend that cervical cancer screening programs should prioritize screening coverage in women aged 30 to 49 years. Decisions about target ages and screening frequency depend upon local burden of disease, costs, and capacity. We used cost and test performance data from the START-UP demonstration projects in India, Nicaragua, and Uganda to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening at various start ages, intervals, and frequencies. We calibrated a mathematical simulation model of cervical carcinogenesis to each country and compared screening with careHPV (cervical and vaginal sampling), visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), and cytology between the ages of 25 and 50 years, at frequencies of once to three times in a lifetime, at 5- and 10-year intervals. Screening with careHPV (cervical sampling) was the most effective and cost-effective strategy in all settings; careHPV (vaginal sampling) was only slightly less effective. The most critical ages for screening are between ages 30 and 45 years. Within this age range, screening at certain ages may be relatively more cost-effective, but cancer risk reductions are similar for a given screening test and interval. Screening three times between 30 and 45 years was very cost-effective and reduced cancer risk by ~50%.
Objective: To estimate the health impact, financial costs, and cost-effectiveness of scaling-upcoverageofhumanpapillomavirus(HPV)vaccination(younggirls)andcervical cancer screening (women of screening age) for women in countries that will likely need donor assistance.
Methods
Cervical cancer is a leading cause of cancer death worldwide, with 85% of the disease burden residing in less developed regions. To inform evidence‐based decision‐making as cervical cancer screening programs are planned, implemented, and scaled in low‐ and middle‐income countries, we used cost and test performance data from the START‐UP demonstration project in Uganda and a microsimulation model of HPV infection and cervical carcinogenesis to quantify the health benefits, distributional equity, cost‐effectiveness, and financial impact of either (1) improving access to cervical cancer screening or (2) increasing the number of lifetime screening opportunities for women who already have access. We found that when baseline screening coverage was low (i.e., 30%), expanding coverage of screening once in a lifetime to 50% can yield comparable reductions in cancer risk to screening two or three times in a lifetime at 30% coverage, lead to greater reductions in health disparities, and cost 150 international dollars (I$) per year of life saved (YLS). At higher baseline screening coverage levels (i.e., 70%), screening three times in a lifetime yielded greater health benefits than expanding screening once in a lifetime to 90% coverage, and would have a cost‐effectiveness ratio (I$590 per YLS) below Uganda's per capita GDP. Given very low baseline coverage at present, we conclude that a policy focus on increasing access for previously unscreened women appears to be more compatible with improving both equity and efficiency than a focus on increasing frequency for a small subset of women.
Background
In the United States, the burden of human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated cancers varies by racial/ethnic group. HPV vaccination may provide opportunities for primary prevention of these cancers. We projected changes in HPV-associated cancer burden among racial/ethnic groups under various coverage assumptions with the available first-generation and second-generation HPV vaccines in order to evaluate changes in racial/ethnic disparities.
Methods
Cancer-specific mathematical models simulated the burden of six HPV-associated cancers. Models parameters, informed using national registries and epidemiological studies, reflected sex-, age- and racial/ethnic-specific heterogeneities in HPV type distribution, cancer incidence, stage detection and mortality. Model outcomes included the cumulative lifetime risks of developing and dying from six HPV-associated cancers. The level of racial/ethnic disparities was evaluated under each alternative HPV vaccine scenario using several metrics of social-group disparity.
Results
HPV vaccination is expected to reduce the risks of developing and dying from HPV-associated cancers in all racial/ethnic groups and reduce the absolute degree of disparities. However, alternative metrics suggested that relative disparities would persist and in some scenarios worsen. For example, when assuming high uptake with the second-generation HPV vaccine, the lifetime risk of dying from an HPV-associated cancer for males decreased by ~60%, yet the relative disparity increased from 3.0 to 3.9.
Conclusions
HPV vaccines are expected to reduce the overall burden of HPV-associated cancers for all racial/ethnic groups and to reduce the absolute disparity gap. However, even with the second-generation vaccine, relative disparities will likely still exist and may widen if the underlying causes of these disparities remain unaddressed.
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