Context. Total solar irradiance changes by about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum. Accurate measurements of this quantity are only available since 1978 and do not provide information on longer-term secular trends. Aims. In order to reliably evaluate the Sun's role in recent global climate change, longer time series are, however, needed. They can only be assessed with the help of suitable models. Methods. The total solar irradiance is reconstructed from the end of the Maunder minimum to the present based on variations of the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. Results. Our model successfully reproduces three independent data sets: total solar irradiance measurements available since 1978, total photospheric magnetic flux since 1974 and the open magnetic flux since 1868 empirically reconstructed using the geomagnetic aa-index. The model predicts an increase in the solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum of 1.3
[1] The historical record of sunspot areas is a valuable and widely used proxy of solar activity and variability. The Royal Greenwich Observatory regularly measured this and other parameters between 1874 and 1976. After that time records from a number of different observatories are available. These, however, show systematic differences and often have significant gaps. Our goal is to obtain a uniform and complete sunspot area time series by combining different data sets. A homogeneous composite of sunspot areas is essential for different applications in solar physics, among others for irradiance reconstructions. Data recorded simultaneously at different observatories are statistically compared in order to determine the intercalibration factors. Using these data we compile a complete and cross-calibrated time series. The Greenwich data set is used as a basis until 1976, the Russian data (a compilation of observations made at stations in the former USSR) are used between 1977 and 1985, and data compiled by the USAF network are used since 1986. Other data sets (Rome, Yunnan, and Catania) are used to fill up the remaining gaps. Using the final sunspot areas record the Photometric Sunspot Index is calculated. We also show that the use of uncalibrated sunspot areas data sets can seriously affect the estimate of irradiance variations. Our analysis implies that there is no basis for the claim that UV irradiance variations have a much smaller influence on climate than total solar irradiance variations.
The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and the Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databases covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal vs. poloidal). Here we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies), to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated to cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e. the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.
We present the first multi-viewpoint coronal mass ejection (CME) catalog. The events are identified visually in simultaneous total brightness observations from the twin SECCHI/COR2 coronagraphs onboard the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory mission. The Multi-View CME Catalog differs from past catalogs in three key aspects: (1) all events between the two viewpoints are cross-linked, (2) each event is assigned a physics-motivated morphological classification (e.g., jet, wave, andflux rope), and (3) kinematic and geometric information is extracted semi-automatically via a supervised image segmentation algorithm. The database extends from the beginning of the COR2 synoptic program (2007 March) to the end of dual-viewpoint observations (2014 September). It contains 4473 unique events with 3358 events identified in both COR2s. Kinematic properties exist currently for 1747 events (26% of COR2-A events and 17% of COR2-B events). We examine several issues, made possible by this cross-linked CME database, including the role of projection on the perceived morphology of events, the missing CME rate, the existence of cool material in CMEs, the solar cycle dependence on CME rate, speeds and width, and the existence of flux rope within CMEs. We discuss the implications for past singleviewpoint studies and for Space Weather research. The database is publicly available on the web including all available measurements. We hope that it will become a useful resource for the community.
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