This paper presents a new methodology for automated route selection for the construction of new power lines, based on geographic information systems (GIS). It uses a dynamic programming model for route optimization. Environmental restrictions are taken into account together with all of the operating, maintenance, and equipment installation costs, including a new approach to the costs associated with the slope of the terrain crossed by the power lines. The computing and visual representation capacities of GIS are exploited for the selection of economic corridors, keeping the total costs under a threshold imposed by the user. Intensive simulation examples illustrate the power and flexibility of the proposed methodology.
This paper presents novel intraday session models for price forecasts (ISMPF models) for hourly price forecasting in the six intraday sessions of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL) and the analysis of mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) obtained with suitable combinations of their input variables in order to find the best ISMPF models. Comparisons of errors from different ISMPF models identified the most important variables for forecasting purposes. Similar analyses were applied to determine the best daily session models for price forecasts (DSMPF models) for the day-ahead price forecasting in the daily session of the MIBEL, considering as input variables extensive hourly time series records of recent prices, power demands and power generations in the previous day, forecasts of demand, wind power generation and weather for the day-ahead, and chronological variables. ISMPF models include the input variables of DSMPF models as well as the daily session prices and prices of preceding intraday sessions. The best ISMPF models achieved lower MAPEs for most of the intraday sessions compared to the error of the best DSMPF model; furthermore, such DSMPF error was very close to the lowest limit error for the daily session. The best ISMPF models can be useful for MIBEL agents of the electricity intraday market and the electric energy industry.
We present and compare two short-term statistical forecasting models for hourly average electric power production forecasts of photovoltaic (PV) plants: the analytical PV power forecasting model (APVF) and the multiplayer perceptron PV forecasting model (MPVF). Both models use forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) tools at the location of the PV plant as well as the past recorded values of PV hourly electric power production. The APVF model consists of an original modeling for adjusting irradiation data of clear sky by an irradiation attenuation index, combined with a PV power production attenuation index. The MPVF model consists of an artificial neural network based model (selected among a large set of ANN optimized with genetic algorithms, GAs). The two models use forecasts from the same NWP tool as inputs. The APVF and MPVF models have been applied to a real-life case study of a grid-connected PV plant using the same data. Despite the fact that both models are quite different, they achieve very similar results, with forecast horizons covering all the daylight hours of the following day, which give a good perspective of their applicability for PV electric production sale bids to electricity markets.
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