An accurate understanding of space weather socioeconomic impact is fundamental to the development of appropriate operational services, forecasting capabilities, and mitigation strategies. One way to approach this problem is by developing physics‐based models and frameworks that can lead to a bottom‐up estimate of risk and likely impact. Here we describe the development of a new framework to assess the economic impact of space weather on power distribution networks and the supply of electricity. In particular, we focus on the phenomenon of the geomagnetic substorm, which is relatively localized in time and space, and occurs multiple times with varying severity during a geomagnetic storm. The framework uses the AE index to characterize substorm severity, and the impact of the substorm is modulated by the resilience of the power grid and the nature of available forecast. Possible scenarios for substorm sequences during a 1‐in‐10‐, a 1‐in‐30‐, and a 1‐in‐100‐year geomagnetic storm events are generated based on the 2003, 1989, and 1859 geomagnetic storms. Economic impact, including international spill over, can then be calculated using standard techniques, based on the duration and the geographical footprint of the power outage. Illustrative calculations are made for the European sector, for a variety of forecast and resilience scenarios. However, currently available data are highly regionally inhomogeneous, frustrating attempts to define an overall global economic impact at the present time.

Forecasting space weather is an essential activity for increasing the resilience of modern technological infrastructure to hazards from the Sun. To provide an accurate forecast, space weather monitors positioned at L5 are proposed that carry in situ plasma detectors. Here we use data from the STEREO and ACE missions to investigate how well it is possible to predict the solar wind when there are two spacecraft located with the same longitudinal separation as from L5 to Earth. There are four intervals when this is the case: STEREO-to-STEREO both on the Earth's side and the far side of the Sun, STEREO-B to ACE and ACE to STEREO-A. We forecast the solar wind by mapping the observed solar wind at the first spacecraft to the second using a time delay calculated using the spacecraft's heliographic longitudinal separation and the difference in radial distance from the Sun, allowing for the solar wind speed. Using forecasting skill scores, we find that the predicted and observed solar wind data are, in general, in very good agreement with each of the four periods, including observed corotating interaction regions. However, there are some notable exceptions when corotating interaction regions have been missed by the forecast. The skill improves further for all time periods when removing coronal mass ejections, which cannot be predicted in this method. We suggest that an L5 monitor should be located at the same heliographic latitude as the Earth to optimize the forecasting ability of the monitor and to reduce the chance of missing important events.Plain Language Summary A space weather monitor spacecraft has been proposed away from the Earth's viewing direction, which is likely to help improve the warning of solar events that could be heading towards Earth. In this study, we investigate whether such a spacecraft can improve our predictions of important physical values that are associated with the solar wind. To do this, we use times when two spacecraft have previously been in similar locations with respect to each other and map each value from one spacecraft to the other, making several important considerations relating to the spacecraft's motion and the movement of the plasma that they are embedded within. We have used "skill scores," which are used to assess weather forecasts to quantify how well our forecast performs. We find that a spacecraft at this location predicts almost all important values better than relying on a spacecraft at L1. This means that a detector of these parameters is essential for when the mission is commissioned.

These data suggest thrombin generation is relatively unaltered when RTFP24 is thawed and stored for 6 days, and that the supernatant of PC has significant haemostatic capacity.

No abstract

No abstract