The issues of forecasting dangerous hydrological phenomena in water bodies in the presence of hydrometrically observed data are considered. The analytical distribution functions of annual excess probabilities are applied - sufficiency curves. The features of calculating the empirical annual probability of exceeding hydrological characteristics, variation coefficients and asymmetries for distribution, the scattering of estimates and other distribution parameters are considered. In the case of heterogeneity of the initial data of hydrometric observations, when the series under consideration consists of heterogeneous elements of the hydrological regime, empirical and analytical distribution curves are set separately for each homogeneous totality. Based on the considered data, a system for monitoring and forecasting emergencies of a hydrological nature at water bodies is being constructed.

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