The H275Y amino acid substitution of the neuraminidase gene is the most common mutation conferring oseltamivir resistance in the N1 subtype of the influenza virus. Using a mathematical model to analyze a set of in vitro experiments that allow for the full characterization of the viral replication cycle, we show that the primary effects of the H275Y substitution on the pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm09) strain are to lengthen the mean eclipse phase of infected cells (from 6.6 to 9.1 h) and decrease (by 7-fold) the viral burst size, i.e., the total number of virions produced per cell. We also find, however, that the infectious-unit-to-particle ratio of the H275Y mutant strain is 12-fold higher than that of the oseltamivir-susceptible strain (0.19 versus 0.016 per RNA copy). A parallel analysis of the H275Y mutation in the prior seasonal A/Brisbane/59/2007 background shows similar changes in the infection kinetic parameters, but in this background, the H275Y mutation also allows the mutant to infect cells five times more rapidly. Competitive mixed-strain infections in vitro, where the susceptible and resistant H1N1pdm09 strains must compete for cells, are characterized by higher viral production by the susceptible strain but suggest equivalent fractions of infected cells in the culture. In ferrets, however, the mutant strain appears to suffer a delay in its infection of the respiratory tract that allows the susceptible strain to dominate mixed-strain infections. In 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the first influenza pandemic of this century and described the virus (H1N1pdm09) as naturally resistant to adamantanes but susceptible to the neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir (10, 29). In the past 3 years, isolated cases of oseltamivir resistance in H1N1pdm09 strains have been reported-almost always associated with the H275Y mutation within the NA genebut the overall level of resistance has remained relatively low (42) at ϳ1% in the United States (47), Ͻ1% in Canada (40), ϳ2.5% in Europe (14, 26), and Ͻ1.6% worldwide (26). In the United States, the fraction of cases of resistance not associated with oseltamivir exposure increased significantly from 11% in (11,18). That dominance of an oseltamivir-resistant H275Y MUT strain was surprising at the time because it had been shown that the mutation usually compromised strain fitness (30). A return to widespread oseltamivir resistance, with a mutated H1N1pdm09 virus, could have significant public health consequences (19).Laboratory experiments have often been used to assess a particular influenza virus strain's phenotype in cell culture and animal models, particularly in relation to oseltamivir resistance. Prior to 2007, experiments demonstrated strongly attenuated growth of H275Y MUT strains of H1N1 in vitro (1, 21), a higher viral titer inoculum required for the infection of ferrets (21, 30), and generally less-pathogenic infections in ferrets, quantified by reduced fevers and smaller inflammatory cell counts in nasal washes (30). This mirrored...

The 2009 pandemic H1N1 (H1N1pdm09) influenza virus is naturally susceptible to neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors, but mutations in the NA protein can cause oseltamivir resistance. The H275Y and I223V amino acid substitutions in the NA of the H1N1pdm09 influenza strain have been separately observed in patients exhibiting oseltamivir-resistance. Here, we apply mathematical modelling techniques to compare the fitness of the wild-type H1N1pdm09 strain relative to each of these two mutants. We find that both the H275Y and I223V mutations in the H1N1pdm09 background significantly lengthen the duration of the eclipse phase (by 2.5 h and 3.6 h, respectively), consistent with these NA mutations delaying the release of viral progeny from newly infected cells. Cells infected by H1N1pdm09 virus carrying the I223V mutation display a disadvantageous, shorter infectious lifespan (17 h shorter) than those infected with the wild-type or MUT-H275Y strains. In terms of compensating traits, the H275Y mutation in the H1N1pdm09 background results in increased virus infectiousness, as we reported previously, whereas the I223V exhibits none, leaving it overall less fit than both its wild-type counterpart and the MUT-H275Y strain. Using computer simulated competition experiments, we determine that in the presence of oseltamivir at doses even below standard therapy, both the MUT-H275Y and MUT-I223V dominate their wild-type counterpart in all aspects, and the MUT-H275Y outcompetes the MUT-I223V. The H275Y mutation should therefore be more commonly observed than the I223V mutation in circulating H1N1pdm09 strains, assuming both mutations have a similar impact or no significant impact on between-host transmission. We also show that mathematical modelling offers a relatively inexpensive and reliable means to quantify inter-experimental variability and assess the reproducibility of results.

A small proportion (1%-1.5%) of 2009 pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus strains (A[H1N1]pdm09) are oseltamivir resistant, almost exclusively because of a H275Y mutation in the neuraminidase protein. However, many individuals infected with resistant strains had not received antivirals. Whether drug-resistant viruses are initially present as minor variants in untreated individuals before they emerge as the dominant strain in a virus population is of great importance for predicting the speed at which resistance will arise. To address this issue, we used ultra-deep sequencing of viral populations from serial nasopharyngeal specimens from an immunocompromised child and from 2 individuals in a household outbreak. We observed that the Y275 mutation was present as a minor variant in infected hosts before the onset of therapy. We also found evidence for the transmission of this drug-resistant variant with drug-susceptible viruses. These observations provide important information on the relative fitness of the Y275 mutation in the absence of oseltamivir treatment.