Background: COVID-19 is one of the most serious global public health threats creating an alarming situation. Therefore, there is an urgent need for investigating and predicting COVID-19 incidence to control its spread more effectively. This study aim to forecast the expected number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and total new deaths of COVID-19 in Bangladesh for next 30 days. Methods: The number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and total new deaths of COVID-19 from 8 March 2020 to 16 October, 2020 was collected to fit an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in Bangladesh from 17th October 2020 to 15th November 2020. All statistical analyses were conducted using R-3.6.3 software with a significant level of p< 0.05. Results: The ARIMA (0,2,1) and ARIMA (0,1,1) model was adopted for forecasting the number of daily total confirmed cases, total deaths and total confirmed new cases, new deaths of COVID-19, respectively. The results showed that an upward trend for the total confirmed cases and total deaths, while total confirmed new cases and total new death, will become stable in the next 30 days if prevention measures are strictly followed to limit the spread of COVID-19. Conclusions: The forecasting results of COVID-19 will not be dreadful for upcoming month in Bangladesh. However, the government and health authorities should take new approaches and keep strong monitoring of the existing strategies to control the further spread of this pandemic.

COVID-19 is one of the most serious global public health threats creating an alarming situation. Therefore, there is an urgent need for investigating and predicting COVID-19 incidence to control its spread more effectively. This study aim to forecast the expected number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and total new deaths of COVID-19 in Bangladesh for next 3 weeks. The number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and total new deaths of COVID-19 from 8 March2020 to 4 February, 2021 was collected to fit an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in Bangladesh from 5th February 2021 to 25th February 2021. All statistical analyses were conducted using R-3.6.3 software with a significant level of p< 0.05. The ARIMA (1,2,1), ARIMA (1,1,1), ARIMA (1,2,2) and ARIMA (1,1,2) model was adopted for forecasting the number of daily total confirmed cases, total confirmed new cases, total deaths and new deaths of COVID-19, respectively. The results showed that an upward trend for the total confirmed cases and total deaths, while total confirmed new cases and total new death, will become stable in the next 3 weeks if prevention measures are strictly followed to limit the spread of COVID-19. The forecasting results of COVID-19 will not be dreadful for upcoming days in Bangladesh. However, the government and health authorities should take new approaches and keep strong monitoring of the existing strategies to control the further spread of this pandemic. Asian J. Med. Biol. Res. March 2021, 7(1): 21-32

Background Inappropriate and injudicious use of antimicrobials in broiler and layer farms has become a common practice in lower and middle-income countries including Bangladesh. This study aimed to assess poultry farmers’ knowledge, attitude, and practices regarding antimicrobial usage (AMU), and their beliefs in factors that affect antimicrobial resistance (AMR) spread and emergence in humans through commercial poultry farms in Bangladesh. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted among 204 farmers (95.6% male; meanage = 35.14 ± 10.25 years) in the Rajshahi district of Bangladesh who were recruited from three upazilas (sub-districts) through a multistage sampling technique. Data were collected from June to November 2021 via face-to-face interviews using a semi-structured questionnaire. Results The proportion of farmers who reported having received information regarding AMU from veterinarians was higher in layer compared to broiler farms (65.9% vs. 44.9%, p < 0.001). A higher proportion of layer compared to broiler farmers believed that antimicrobial residues and pathogens in poultry can pass to humans through the consumption of contaminated eggs (28.1% vs. 5.8%, p < 0.05). The mean score of the farmers’ attitude towards addressing AMU was 4.49 (SD = 1.37) out of 7, with the higher score indicating a better attitude. The mean score of better attitudes towards addressing AMU was significantly higher among educated participants (bachelor’s or higher levels of education (p = 0.006). A higher proportion of layer (56.3%) farmers did not keep a record of AMU when compared to broiler farmers (37.7%) (p = 0.012). More broiler (50.7%) compared to layer (38.5%) farmers continued using the full dose of antimicrobials (p = 0.042). The most frequently used antimicrobials in broiler and layer poultry farms were Colistin (broiler vs layer: 73.9% vs. 86.75%; p = 0.024), and Ciprofloxacin (broiler vs. layer: 95.7% vs. 84.4%; p = 0.021). Farmers’ beliefs were significantly associated with the spread of AMR pathogens from contaminated eggs to humans (p < 0.001). Conclusions The findings reflected that majority of farmers had inadequate knowledge of AMU, less knowledgeable beliefs aboutAMU, and inappropriate AMU (e.g., poor record keeping, incomplete doses) in chicken production systems. The government should ensure education or advisory services for poultry farmers on proper AMU, enforce current veterinary laws and regulations on antimicrobials, and implement AMU surveillance systems.

Background and Objective: The COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) outbreak has become a public health threat all over the world. From December 31, 2019 to March 19, 2020, 146 countries were affected. Evidence on the management approaches of current COVID-19 pandemic is still limited though the numbers of affected countries are increasing as the days go by. This study was aimed at determining the attack rate (AR) and case fatality rate (CFR) of Covid-19 in six different regions around the world in the first quarter of 2020. An attempt was also made to provide an overview of the ongoing situation of COVID-19. Methods: The design of the study was mixed approach where a retrospective analysis of surveillance data of six different regions around the world were collected from COVID-19 dashboard of World Health organization, between 31 December 2019 to 19 March 2020 (Time: 2:00 pm. BST [CET: 9 am]). Besides, other different validated sources (example: Worldometer, Center for Disease Control and Prevention) were used to assess the ongoing situation regarding COVID-19. A statistical software SPSS version 26 was used to analyze the data. Results: There were a total of 207,860 confirmed cases and 8779 deaths across six different regions around the world from 31 December 2019 to 19 March 2020, with the highest AR of 9.92/100,000 population in Europe region, followed by Asia (2.7/ 100,000), Australia (1.75/100,000), North America (1.42/100,000), South America (0.23/100,000) and Africa (0.06/100,000) regions. Study results revealed statistically significant association between attack rates and the six regions of the world (p=0.002), meaning that AR varied in the regions around the world. The CFR was high in Europe region (4.81%), followed by Asia (4.06%), Africa (2.72%), South America (1.41%), Australia (1.12%), and North America (0.69%) regions. Data reviewed from different countries revealed that the highest number of cases was confirmed in the United States, followed by Spain and Italy. The findings revealed that the reported confirmed cases varied widely in different regions of the world. Conclusion: The severity and variation in -geographical distribution of COVID-19 cases and deaths suggest that urgent response from various government and public health authorities should be taken and research regarding underlying factors determining this severity should be sought for. Ibrahim Med. Coll. J. 2020; 14(2): 1-10

ObjectivesTo evaluate the understanding, opinions and actions concerning COVID-19, referred to as knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP), among rural adolescents in Bangladesh. Additionally, the study aimed to identify the determinants that may influence adolescents’ KAP.DesignAn interview-based cross-sectional study.SettingThe study area was the Thakurgaon district, which was located in the northwestern region of Bangladesh.ParticipantsA total of 266 rural adolescents were selected using a non-probability (convenience sampling) technique.Main outcome measuresSociodemographic characteristics, source of information, COVID-19-related KAP, and their associated factors.ResultsThe majority of the respondents were females and reported that mass media (eg, television channels and papers) was the main source of information to learn about COVID-19. The mean score for knowledge was 7.15±3, whereas the scores were 10.5±2.8, and 8.78±2.66 for attitude and practice, respectively. Among the adolescents, only 11% had adequate knowledge, a positive attitude (27%) and good practices (31%). The predictive factors related to adolescents' knowledge and attitude were their religion, educational level and family income. Adolescents who were from the Islamic religion and who had secondary education were more knowledgeable and encompassed more positive attitudes. Besides, poor KAP towards COVID-19 was significantly higher among the participants with the lowest family income (less than 10 000 BDT). Moreover, their knowledge was significantly associated with their attitudes and practices.ConclusionThe study found that adolescents in rural areas lacked sufficient knowledge of COVID-19 and engaged in unsatisfactory preventative behaviour. Therefore, the development of effective health education programmes that incorporate consideration of KAP-modifying factors is needed. In addition, the result would be helpful for other similar types of pandemics.