BackgroundNon-communicable diseases (NCDs) are leading causes of premature disability and death worldwide. However, the lifetime risk of developing any NCD is unknown, as are the effects of shared common risk factors on this risk.Methods and findingsBetween July 6, 1989, and January 1, 2012, we followed participants from the prospective Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older who were free from NCDs at baseline for incident stroke, heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. We quantified occurrence/co-occurrence and remaining lifetime risk of any NCD in a competing risk framework. We additionally studied the lifetime risk of any NCD, age at onset, and overall life expectancy for strata of 3 shared risk factors at baseline: smoking, hypertension, and overweight. During 75,354 person-years of follow-up from a total of 9,061 participants (mean age 63.9 years, 60.1% women), 814 participants were diagnosed with stroke, 1,571 with heart disease, 625 with diabetes, 1,004 with chronic respiratory disease, 1,538 with cancer, and 1,065 with neurodegenerative disease. NCDs tended to co-occur substantially, with 1,563 participants (33.7% of those who developed any NCD) diagnosed with multiple diseases during follow-up. The lifetime risk of any NCD from the age of 45 years onwards was 94.0% (95% CI 92.9%–95.1%) for men and 92.8% (95% CI 91.8%–93.8%) for women. These risks remained high (>90.0%) even for those without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight. Absence of smoking, hypertension, and overweight was associated with a 9.0-year delay (95% CI 6.3–11.6) in the age at onset of any NCD. Furthermore, the overall life expectancy for participants without these risk factors was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.2–6.8) longer than for those with all 3 risk factors. Participants aged 45 years and older without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight at baseline spent 21.6% of their remaining lifetime with 1 or more NCDs, compared to 31.8% of their remaining life for participants with all of these risk factors at baseline. This difference corresponds to a 2-year compression of morbidity of NCDs. Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding, unmeasured changes in risk factor profiles during follow-up, and potentially limited generalisability to different healthcare settings and populations not of European descent.ConclusionsOur study suggests that in this western European community, 9 out of 10 individuals aged 45 years and older develop an NCD during their remaining lifetime. Among those individuals who develop an NCD, at least a third are subsequently diagnosed with multiple NCDs. Absence of 3 common shared risk factors is associated with compression of morbidity of NCDs. These findings underscore the importance of avoidance of these common shared risk factors to reduce the premature morbidity and mortality attributable to NCDs.

Obesity is one of the greatest public health challenges of the 21st century. Obesity is currently responsible for ∼0.7-2.8% of a country's health costs worldwide. Treatment is often not effective because weight regulation is complex. Appetite and energy control are regulated in the brain. Melanocortin-4 receptor (MC4R) has a central role in this regulation. MC4R defects lead to a severe clinical phenotype with lack of satiety and early-onset severe obesity. Preclinical research has been carried out to understand the mechanism of MC4R regulation and possible effectors. The objective of this study is to systematically review the literature for emerging pharmacological obesity treatment options. A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed and Embase for articles published until June 2012. The search resulted in 664 papers matching the search terms, of which 15 papers remained after elimination, based on the specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. In these 15 papers, different MC4R agonists were studied in vivo in animal and human studies. Almost all studies are in the preclinical phase. There are currently no effective clinical treatments for MC4R-deficient obese patients, although MC4R agonists are being developed and are entering phase I and II trials.

Background Immunity has been suggested to be important in the pathogenesis of dementia. However, the contribution of innate versus adaptive immunity in the development of dementia is not clear. In this study, we aimed to investigate (1) the association between components of innate immunity (granulocytes and platelets) and adaptive immunity (lymphocytes) with risk of dementia and (2) the association between their derived ratios (granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio [GLR], platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio [PLR], and systemic immune-inflammation index [SII]), reflecting the balance between innate and adaptive immunity, with risk of dementia. Methods Blood cell counts were measured repeatedly between 2002 and 2015 in dementia-free participants of the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. Participants were followed-up for dementia until 1 January 2016. Joint models were used to determine the association between granulocyte, platelets, and lymphocyte counts, and their derived ratios with risk of dementia. Results Of the 8313 participants (mean [standard deviation] age 61.1 [7.4] years, 56.9% women), 664 (8.0%) developed dementia during a median follow-up of 8.6 years. Doubling of granulocyte and platelet counts tended to be associated with an increased risk of dementia (HR [95%CI] 1.22 [0.89–1.67] and 1.45 [1.07–1.95], respectively). Doubling of the derived ratios GLR, PLR, and SII were all associated with an increased dementia risk (HR [95%CI] 1.26 [1.03–1.53], 1.27 [1.05–1.53], and 1.15 [0.98–1.34], respectively). Conclusions GLR, PLR, and SII are associated with an increased risk of dementia in the general population. This supports the role of an imbalance in the immune system towards innate immunity in the pathogenesis of dementia. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12974-019-1454-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

There is a wide interest in biomarkers that capture the burden of detrimental factors as these accumulate with the passage of time, i.e., increasing age. Telomere length has received considerable attention as such a marker, because it is easily quantified and it may aid in disentangling the etiology of dementia or serve as predictive marker. We determined the association of telomere length with risk of Alzheimer's disease and all-cause dementia in a population-based setting. Within the Rotterdam Study, we performed quantitative PCR to measure mean leukocyte telomere length in blood. We determined the association of telomere length with risk of Alzheimer's disease until 2016, using Cox regression models. Of 1,961 participants (mean age 71.4 ± 9.3 years, 57.1% women) with a median follow-up of 8.3 years, 237 individuals were diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease. We found a U-shaped association between telomere length and risk of Alzheimer's disease: compared to the middle tertile the adjusted hazard ratio was 1.59 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.13-2.23) for the lowest tertile and 1.47 (1.03-2.10) for the highest tertile. Results were similarly U-shaped but slightly attenuated for all-cause dementia. In conclusion, shorter and longer telomere length are both associated with an increased risk of Alzheimer's disease in the general population.