Did the election of Donald Trump affect the popularity of the European Union (EU) in Europe? Theoretically, both a positive rally effect (due to a perceived external threat) and a negative domino effect (due to resignation among Europhiles and/or reinforcement among europhobe nationalists) are plausible. We treat Trump’s unexpected victory as an external shock and use a Eurobarometer survey that was conducted in all EU-28 member states four days prior to (control group) and six days after the election (treatment group) as source material for a natural experiment. The analysis reveals that the election of Trump caused a significant increase in the EU’s popularity in Europe immediately after the election. This “Trump effect” is considerable in size, roughly equivalent to three years of education. Gains in popularity were particularly high among respondents who perceived their country as economically struggling and, surprisingly, among the political right, suggesting that Trump’s victory broadened and ideologically diversified the EU’s base of support.

During the past decades the importance of soft skills for labour market outcomes has grown substantially. This carries implications for labour market inequality, since previous research shows that soft skills are not valued equally across race and gender. This work explores the role of soft skills in job advertisements by drawing on methods from computational science as well as on theoretical and empirical insights from economics, sociology and psychology. We present a semi-automatic approach based on crowdsourcing and text mining for extracting a list of soft skills. We find that soft skills are a crucial component of job ads, especially of low-paid jobs and jobs in female-dominated professions. Our work shows that soft skills can serve as partial predictors of the gender composition in job categories and that not all soft skills receive equal wage returns at the labour market. Especially "female" skills are frequently associated with wage penalties. Our results expand the growing literature on the association of soft skills on wage inequality and highlight their importance for occupational gender segregation at labour markets.

Objective: The aim of this study is to extend our knowledge about uncertainty in fertility intentions from a life course perspective. We want to find out if life course markers such as economic circumstances, relationship status, family size, and the so-called “biological clock” (getting older) influence uncertainty in fertility intentions. Uncertainty in fertility intentions is the state in which individuals are not sure whether they will have (more) children. Background: Determining what drives uncertainty in fertility intentions may lead to a better understanding of fertility decision-making and its outcomes. Method: We use German panel data (German Family Panel, pairfam) for three birth cohorts (1971-73, 1981-83, 1991-93), and employ multinomial fixed-effects logit models as well as bivariate analyses based on waves 1 to 11. Results: Uncertainty in fertility intentions is volatile across an individual’s life course, serving as a transitional phase between certainly intending and not intending to have any (more) children. Approaching the end of the reproductive life span (getting older), separating from a partner, having two or more children, and, for men, subjective economic fears increase the odds of being uncertain. Conclusion: By showing that uncertainty in fertility intentions is a volatile concept and that relevant life course markers shape this volatility, we provide new insights into the process of fertility decision-making.

While research on the gender pay gap (GPG) is growing, there is little evidence on the stability or convergence of GPGs against the backdrop of sudden historical changes. Taking advantage of German reunification, after which western male-breadwinner policies were superimposed on the hitherto gender egalitarian East, we illuminate this research gap. Using decompositions on the Socio-economic Panel, we examine how historically grown gender arrangements influence the GPG in eastern and western Germany 1990–2013. We find support for the concept of a stalled gender revolution and a continued influence of pre-unification gender arrangements on the German GPG.