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A new model is developed in this paper which demonstrates a flexible method for modeling a cash flow stream with a declining growth rate that asymptotically approaches a mature long-term growth rate. This model can be applied when the initial growth rate in cash flows is temporarily larger than the required rate of return. A simple closed form equation of the valuation model is presented along with an example to illustrate the valuation of future cash flows with a declining growth rate. A comparison is made with the valuation from multi-stage models that have constant growth segments, the H-Model, and the Ohlson-Juettner model. This highlights the difference in valuation that results from using this new model. An example is also included to illustrate how to match a decline curve to a specific forecast of future cash flows. This new declining growth model provides a flexible and practical approach for valuing equities.

This article investigates the potential effect that Social Security reform may have on bond and equity returns. We specifically focus on the effect of proposals to shift a portion of the investment of the U.S. Social Security Trust Fund to the equities market. Models are developed to demonstrate the relationship between returns and both the relative size of the Social Security Trust Fund and the portfolio allocation of the Trust Fund. Using these two models, we then show that interest rates will increase from either a decrease in the size of the Social Security Trust Fund or a shifting in the investment mix from bonds to equities. We derive an adjustment factor that relates the magnitude of change in interest rates from either source and use this adjustment factor in conjunction with estimates of the relationship between government debt and interest rates to forecast the potential effect on interest rates from shifting part of the Trust Fund to the equity market. The estimates herein suggest that investing some of the Social Security funds in equities is not a painless cureall for the Social Security system and may even have some adverse effects in terms of income transfers from American taxpayers to foreign bondholders.

Several proposals have been developed to reform the Social Security System to ensure that it is fully funded. The investment of a portion of Social Security funds in equities has often been proposed as a means to avoid increasing payroll taxes. This paper develops a general equilibrium model to demonstrate that investing Social Security funds in equities will decrease the return on equities and increase interest rates on bonds, which also leads to an increase in general income taxes. Thus, investing Social Security funds in equities simply shifts a potential increase in payroll taxes to an increase in income taxes. © 2000 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

Previous studies have shown a positive price effect on the underlying security with the introduction of shortterm options on an organized exchange. This effect apparently dissipated after the first nine years of the shortterm option market because there is a smaller price effect for new options introduced after 1982. A similar positive price effect occurred with the 1990 introduction of longterm options (Long-term Equity Anticipation Securities, or LEAPS), but this effect diminished rapidly in the first nine months of the LEAPS market. The evidence in this research suggests that LEAPS are not redundant assets and offer additional market spanning investment possibilities.