In recent years, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has installed radiation sensors to screen cargo containers entering the United States. They are concerned that terrorists could use containers to smuggle radiological material into the country and carry out attacks with dirty bombs or a nuclear device. Recent studies have questioned the value of improving this screening system with new sensor technology. The cost of delays caused by frequent false alarms outweighs any reduction in the probability of an attack in an expected cost analysis. We extend existing methodology in three ways to demonstrate how additional factors affect the value of screening investments. We examine the effect that screening has in discouraging terrorists. We model multiple levels of screening.Finally, we consider additional objectives beyond cost. We find that the conclusion about screening depends on key inputs to the probability model (reflecting uncertainties) and to the value function (reflecting the stakeholders' fundamental objectives).
The ultimate goal of emergency medical service systems is to save lives. However, most emergency medical service systems have performance measures for responding to 911 calls within a fixed timeframe (i.e., a response time threshold), rather than measures related to patient outcomes. These response time thresholds are used because they are easy to obtain and to understand. This paper proposes a methodology for evaluating the performance of response time thresholds in terms of resulting patient survival rates. A model that locates ambulances to optimize patient survival rates is used for base comparison. Results are illustrated using real-world data collected from Hanover County, Virginia. The results indicate that locating ambulances to maximize seven and eight min response time thresholds simultaneously maximize patient survival. Nine and 10 min response time thresholds result in more equitable patient outcomes, with improved patient survival rates in rural regions.
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