In this paper, we discuss the most recent developments in temporal disaggregation techniques carried out at the Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT). They concern the extension from static to dynamic autoregressive distributed lag regressions and the adoption of the state-space framework for the statistical treatment of temporal disaggregation. Beyond the development of a unified procedure for both static and dynamic methods from one side and the treatment of the logarithmic transformation from the other, we provide short guidelines for model selection. The inclusion of stochastic trends in the regressions is also discussed. We evaluate the new dynamic methods by implementing a large-scale exercise using the ISTAT annual value added data jointly with quarterly industrial production over the 1995-2013 period. The main finding is that autoregressive distributed lag disaggregations reduce forecast errors in comparison to static variants, at a price of lower correlations with related high-frequency indicators. Moreover, problematic outcomes are limited to few cases.

PurposeWithin the two-tier bargaining system, the role of complementary collective bargaining is somewhat controversial. In this paper, the authors analyse collective agreements from a triple perspective: scanning the contents of firm-level complementary collective agreements (CCAs); identifying the factors that determine the probability of signing a CCA and analysing the relationship between the latter and firm performance with a focus on the role of different negotiated topics.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical procedure is based on 2 main linked sources: longitudinal balance sheet data and a cross-sectional dataset of a representative sample of Italian firms with at least 15 employees, including some retrospective information. The innovative dataset derives from integrating multiple sources. The main empirical approaches include Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimations, multivariate regressions, as well as instrumental variable (IV) estimations to overcome simultaneity issues.FindingsWith respect to the probability of signing a CCA, on the firms' side, the authors find a positive role of the degree of firm capitalisation and affiliation with an employers' association and a negative role of family firms compared to non-family firms; on the workers' side, a positive role of the workers' unionisation rate and a positive but differentiated weight of workers' union representations and industrial conflicts. With regard to firm performance, the authors' estimates suggest that signing a CCA is associated with an average increase of 3% in total factor productivity (TFP) and 7.8% in labour productivity. By investigating the contents of the complementarity agreements, the authors show that bargaining a wider range of topics implies advantages that are not homogenous, benefitting more efficient firms. Moreover, the authors find a specific positive and significant role for three main interacting issues: economic incentives, organisation and employment.Research limitations/implicationsThe cross-sectional structure of the data on bargaining practices prevents detecting causal relationships due to either potential common driver(s) of both the target variables (firm performance) and bargaining practices (simultaneity bias) and unobservable time-invariant firm-level characteristics (heterogeneity bias).Practical implicationsAccording to the authors' results, policymakers should operate along four fiscal channels to spur the efficiency of firms, via CCA. First, tax incentives stimulate higher firm capitalisation, as this seems to be a CCA-favouring factor. Second, deduction in taxable income for union members, which should led to higher membership rates, hence raising the likelihood of obtaining a CCA. Third, incentives aimed at directly promoting the greater diffusion of CCAs as a source of improved performance. Fourth, fiscal tools aimed at favouring the negotiation of either specific contents or “bundles” of contents, which the authors' estimates show as an additional performance-enhancing tool of CCA practices.Originality/valueThe conceptualisation of the contents of CCA as organisational investments and the whole probability function of signing a CCA are quite innovative. Moreover, the econometric strategy takes account of several potential sources of bias when estimating the relevant coefficients at each stage, which is currently not fully considered in the literature. Finally, this is the first study to shed light on both the diverse outcomes associated with different negotiated topics (in terms of quantity and quality) and the distinction between short and medium-long term effects.

Many contributions in the recent literature have investigated over the relationship between GDP growth and its volatility without getting a clear and unambiguous answer. Besides reassessing the well-known effect of output volatility on growth as benchmark analysis, this study aims at looking into the “black box” of the business cycle volatility by disentangling the impacts of volatility of GDP major components—that is, private consumption, private investment and government expenditure—on growth, simultaneously considered. Our empirical analysis unveils a remarkably robust and strong negative correlation of consumption volatility with mean growth and a positive one with volatility of investment and of public expenditure. If these findings shed some additional light on the (still controversial) relationship between economic fluctuations and growth, they will also make it possible to compare the relative impact of each component, with possibly relevant policy implications. Importantly, this might reconcile opposite views about the issue that different empirical results might originate from the relative importance across empirical studies of the various components of volatility.

Many contributions in the recent literature have investigated over the relationship between growth and its volatility, without getting a clear and unambiguous answer. Besides reassessing the well-known e¤ect of output volatility on growth as benchmark analysis, this study aims at looking into the "black box" of the business cycle volatility by disentangling the impacts of volatility of GDP major components -i.e. private consumption, private investment and government expenditure -on growth, simultaneously considered. Our empirical analysis unveils a remarkably robust and strong negative correlation of consumption volatility with mean growth, and a positive one with volatility of investment and of public expenditure. If these …ndings shed some additional light on the (still controversial) relationship between economic ‡uctuations and growth, they also make it possible to compare the relative impact of each component, with possibly relevant policy implications. Importantly, this might reconcile opposite views about the issue, in that di¤erent empirical results might originate from the relative importance across empirical studies of the various components of volatility.

This study aims at evaluating the impact of educational mismatch onto firm-level productivity for a large set of Italian firms. In particular, over (under)-education refers to situations where individual’s educational attainment is higher (lower) than the education required by the job, thereby producing a surplus (deficit) of education. Based on the integration of the LEED (Linked Employer Employee Database) Istat Statistical Register Asia Occupazione – which provides information on workers’ age, professional qualification and educational attainment – and the Istat Frame-SBS Register, we perform an analysis in the spirit of the ORU (Over, Required and Under Education) model proposed by Kampelmann e Rycx (2012). The dataset is based on a large panel of over 55,000 manufacturing and services firms with more than 20 employees, covering the 2014-2019 period. The empirical strategy is based on a two-step procedure: first, ORU indicators are computed at the worker-level; second, we estimate a firm-level productivity (value added per employee) function where the key variables of interest are the ORU indicators collapsed at the firm-level, taking into account both firm and workers characteristics. The productivity function is estimated by GMM-system by Arellano and Bond (1995) e Blundell and Bond (1988). Main results point out that over/under-education affects productivity growth in both manufacturing and services firms: firm’s productivity rises following a one unit increase in mean years of over-education – with spiking results for medium and high-tech manufacturing firms –, whereas a growth in under-education hampers productivity dynamics in high and medium-high tech manufacturing and knowledge-intensive services firms.