The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

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Human papillomavirus (HPV) is detected in 99.7% of cervical cancers. Current vaccines target types 16 and 18. Prior to vaccination implementation, a prospective cohort study was conducted to determine baseline HPV prevalence in unvaccinated women in Wales; after HPV16 and HPV18, HPV 51 was found to be most prevalent. This study aimed to re-assess the unexpected high prevalence of HPV 51 and consider its potential for type-replacement. Two hundred HPV 51 positive samples underwent re-analysis by repeating the original methodology using HPV 51 GP5+/6+ PCR-enzyme immunoassay, and additionally a novel assay of HPV 51 E7 PCR. Data were correlated with age, social deprivation and cytology. Direct repeat of HPV 51 PCR-EIA identified 146/195 (75.0%) samples as HPV 51 positive; E7 PCR identified 166/195 (85.1%) samples as HPV 51 positive. HPV 51 prevalence increased with cytological grade. The prevalence of HPV 51 in the pre-vaccinated population was truly high. E7 DNA assays may offer increased specificity for HPV genotyping. Cross-protection of current vaccines against less-prevalent HPV types warrants further study. This study highlights the need for longitudinal investigation into the prevalence of non-vaccine HPV types, especially those phylogenetically different to vaccine types for potential type-replacement. Ongoing surveillance will inform future vaccines.

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