Medicare Advantage payment regulations include risk-adjusted capitated reimbursement, which was implemented to discourage favorable risk selection and encourage the retention of members who incur high costs. However, the extent to which risk-adjusted capitation has succeeded is not clear, especially for members using high-cost services not previously considered in assessments of risk selection. We examined the rates at which participants who used three high-cost services switched between Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare. We found that the switching rate from 2010 to 2011 away from Medicare Advantage and to traditional Medicare exceeded the switching rate in the opposite direction for participants who used long-term nursing home care (17 percent versus 3 percent), short-term nursing home care (9 percent versus 4 percent), and home health care (8 percent versus 3 percent). These results were magnified among people who were enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid. Our findings raise questions about the role of Medicare Advantage plans in serving high-cost patients with complex care needs, who account for a disproportionately high amount of total health care spending.

In the traditional Medicare program, the use of health care services—particularly postacute care—varies substantially across geographic regions. Less is known about such variations in Medicare Advantage (MA), which is growing rapidly. Insurers that are paid on a risk basis, as in MA, may have incentives and tools to restrain the use of services, which could attenuate geographic variations. In this study of fifty-four million Medicare beneficiaries in the period 2007–13, we found that geographic variations in the use of skilled nursing facility and hospital care in the MA population exceeded those in traditional Medicare, though variations in the use of home health care were greater in traditional Medicare. Within hospital referral regions, the correlations between the use of services in MA and traditional Medicare were moderate to strong. The findings suggest that regional variations in hospital and postacute care reflect local factors that influence beneficiaries’ use of services irrespective of the way they obtain coverage.

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Background: Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program reports risk-standardized readmission rates for traditional Medicare but not Medicare Advantage beneficiaries. Objective: To compare readmission rates between Medicare Advantage and traditional Medicare. Design: Retrospective cohort study linking the Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR) file with the Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS).