Part 1 of this study investigated possible causes of the observed decline in correlations between SAT scores and freshman grade‐point average (FGPA). The results were described in Chapter 12, “Implications of Using Freshman GPA as the Criterion for the Predictive Validity of the SAT,” and were the basis for much of Chapters 2 and 3 of the monograph Predicting College Grades: An Analysis of Institutional Trends Over Two Decades (Willingham, Lewis, Morgan, and Ramist 1990). Working with a data base of 38 colleges, the study found that the comparability of course grades received by entering freshmen declined in the 1980s. Three new measures of grade comparability—variety of courses taken, variation in average student aptitude among courses, and appropriateness of average course grade in relation to student aptitude level—proved to be excellent indicators of both the level of and the change in SAT validity for predicting FGPA among the 38 colleges. Using course grade as the criterion instead of FGPA reduced the decline in both SAT and high school GPA (HSGPA) validity for predicting course grades by 40 percent. Contrary to the assumption that high school record (HSR) is a better predictor than the SAT, compared with HSR the SAT had higher or equal average validities for predicting course grade in almost all categories of courses. (Each course was placed into one of 37 categories based on subject, skills required, and level.) Part 2 of this project examines course selection, grading patterns, grade comparability, SAT predictive effectiveness, and average over‐ and underpredictions in each type of course for groups defined by an academic composite index, sex, English as best or not best language, and ethnic group. SAT predictive effectiveness is determined with and without HSR on the basis of correlations that are corrected for restriction of range. Over‐ and underpredictions are determined by residuals from predictions. All results are analyzed by college selectivity level and size. On average, males took more rigorously graded courses and females obtained a higher FGPA: two‐thirds of the .09 difference by sex in FGPA related to course selection. Predictions of course grades based on the SAT were better for females, on average, than for males, and the SAT added more incremental information over HSR for females. Underprediction of FGPA for females, using the SAT and HSR, averaged .06. Underprediction of course grade for females, using the SAT and HSR, averaged .03, but was reduced to .02 using the Test of Standard Written English (TSWE) as an additional predictor, and was eliminated entirely at more selective colleges. Although on average the SAT predicted FGPA and course grades better for students whose best language was English, it added more incremental information over HSR for students whose best language was not English. Asian American students took, on average, very strictly graded courses, but obtained a high average FGPA. The SAT predicted FGPA and course grades better for them than for any other ethnic...

The impact of revisions in the content of the SAT® and changes in the score scale on the predictive validity of the SAT were examined. Predictions of freshman grade‐point average (FGPA) for the entering class of 1994 (who had taken the old SAT) were compared with predictions for the class of 1995 (who had taken the new SAT I: Reasoning Test). The 1995 scores were evaluated both on the original SAT Program scale and on the recentered scale introduced that year. The changes in the test content and recentering of the score scale had virtually no impact on predictive validity. Other analyses indicated that the SAT I predicts FGPA about equally well across different ethnic groups. Correlations were slightly higher for higher levels of parental education and family income, and grades were more predictable for students with intended majors in math/science (mathematics, engineering, and biological or physical sciences) than for students with other intended majors. Correlations of the SAT I and the composite of SAT I scores and high school grade‐point average (HSGPA) with FGPA were generally higher for women than for men, although this pattern was reversed at colleges with very high mean SAT I scores. When a single prediction equation was used for all students, men tended to get lower grades than predicted and women got higher grades than predicted. African‐American and Hispanic/Latino men received lower grades than predicted, but women in these groups performed as predicted by the composite. Both men and women with intended majors in math/science got lower grades than would be predicted by an equation based on scores for all enrolled students.