We derive and test q-theory implications for cross-sectional stock returns. Under constant returns to scale, stock returns equal levered investment returns, which are tied directly to firm characteristics. When we use generalized method of moments to match average levered investment returns to average observed stock returns, the model captures the average stock returns of portfolios sorted by earnings surprises, book-to-market equity, and capital investment. When we try to match expected returns and return variances simultaneously, the variances predicted in the model are largely comparable to those observed in the data. However, the resulting expected return errors are large.
We study the connection between momentum portfolio returns and shifts in factor loadings on the growth rate of industrial production. Winners have temporarily higher loadings than losers. The loading spread derives mostly from the high, positive loadings of winners. Small stocks have higher loadings than big stocks, and value stocks have higher loadings than growth stocks. Using standard multifactor tests, we present evidence that the growth rate of industrial production is a priced risk factor. In most of our tests, however, the combined effect of factor pricing and risk shifts does not explain a large fraction of momentum returns.
We study the connection between momentum portfolio returns and shifts in factor loadings on the growth rate of industrial production. Winners have temporarily higher loadings than losers. The loading spread derives mostly from the high, positive loadings of winners. Small stocks have higher loadings than big stocks, and value stocks have higher loadings than growth stocks. Using standard multifactor tests, we present evidence that the growth rate of industrial production is a priced risk factor. In most of our tests, however, the combined effect of factor pricing and risk shifts does not explain a large fraction of momentum returns.
The unique characteristics of the U.S. initial public offering (IPO) process, particularly the strict quiet period regulations, allow us to explore the effects of media coverage when the coverage does not contain genuine news (i.e., hard information that was previously unknown). We show that a simple, objective measure of pre-IPO media coverage is positively related to the stock's long-term value, liquidity, analyst coverage, and institutional investor ownership. Our results are robust to additional controls for size, to using abnormal or excess media, and to an instrumental variable approach. We also find that pre-IPO media coverage is negatively related to future expected returns, measured by the implied cost of capital. In all, we find a long-term role for media coverage, consistent with Merton's attention or investor recognition hypothesis. This paper was accepted by Brad Barber, finance.
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