There is an increasing call for local measures to adapt to climate change, based on foresight analyses in collaboration with actors. However, such analyses involve many challenges, particularly because the actors concerned may not consider climate change to be an urgent concern. This paper examines the methodological choices made by three research teams in the design and implementation of participatory foresight analyses to explore agricultural and water management options for adaptation to climate change. Case studies were conducted in coastal areas of France, Morocco and Portugal where the groundwater is intensively used for irrigation, the aquifers are at risk or are currently overexploited, and a serious agricultural crisis is underway. When designing the participatory processes, the researchers had to address four main issues: whether to avoid or prepare dialogue between actors whose relations may be limited or tense; how to select participants and get them involved; how to facilitate discussion of issues that the actors may not initially consider to be of great concern; and finally, how to design and use scenarios. In each case, most of the invited actors responded and met to discuss and evaluate a series of scenarios. Strategies were discussed at different levels, from farming practices to aquifer management. It was shown that such participatory analyses can be implemented in situations which may initially appear to be unfavourable. This was made possible by the flexibility in the methodological choices, in particular the possibility of framing the climate change issue in a broader agenda for discussion with the actors.

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a b s t r a c tWe discuss methodological issues related to the development of long term future agricultural water demand scenarios. We present the results of original research which combines the use of scenario workshops with quantitative crop water requirement modeling approaches. Using a Southern France case study, we describe four scenarios, debated with farmers and stakeholders during workshops and evaluated in terms of total water demand. Results suggest that socio-economic evolution could lead to a 40% increase of irrigation water demand. From a methodological perspective, the research highlights the mutual benefits for both policy makers and scientists of involving stakeholders in the development of scenarios, using both qualitative storylines and quantitative modeling tools.

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