The Mackenzie River, Canada's longest and largest river system, provides the greatest Western Hemisphere discharge to the Arctic Ocean. Recent reports of declining flows have prompted concern because (1) this influences Arctic Ocean salinity, stratification and polar ice; (2) a major tributary, the Peace River, has large hydroelectric projects, and further dams are proposed; and (3) the system includes the extensive and biodiverse Peace-Athabasca, Slave and Mackenzie deltas. To assess hydrological trends over the past century that could reflect climate change, we analysed historic patterns of river discharges. We expanded the data series by infilling for short gaps, calculating annual discharges from early summer-only records (typical r 2 > 0.9), coordinating data from sequential hydrometric gauges (requiring r 2 > 0.

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In dry ecoregions, trees are restricted to river valley floodplains where river water supplements the limited local precipitation. Around the Northern Hemisphere, cottonwoods, riparian poplars, are often predominant trees in floodplain forests and these ecological specialists require floods that create and saturate sand and gravel bars, enabling seedling recruitment. By pairing the interpretation of aerial photographs at approximately decade intervals with dendrochronology, we explored the coordination between river floods, geomorphic disturbance and colonization of plains cottonwoods (Populus deltoides) over eight meanders along the Red Deer River in the semi‐arid prairie of western Canada. This river has a relatively natural flow regime and minimal human alteration through the World Heritage Site of Dinosaur Provincial Park. We found that the 50‐year flood of 1954 increased channel migration and produced extensive accretion with downstream expansion of meander lobes and some channel infilling, which was followed by prolific cottonwood colonization. Those processes accompanied the major flood, while bank erosion and cottonwood losses were more gradual and continuous over the past half‐century. Results indicated even greater floodplain and woodland development after an earlier 100‐year flood in 1915. Each flood produced an arcuate band of mature cottonwoods and there were five to seven progressively older woodland bands across the floodplain, with each cottonwood age grouping increasing by about a half‐century. The 700 m wide floodplain was progressively reworked by the river through pulses of channel movement and floodplain and woodland development over approximately 250 years and correspondingly, the oldest cottonwoods were about 250 years old.

The South Saskatchewan River Basin of southern Alberta drains the transboundary central Rocky Mountains region and provides the focus for irrigation agriculture in Canada. Following extensive development, two tributaries, the Oldman and Bow rivers, were closed for further water allocations, whereas the Red Deer River (RDR) remains open. The RDR basin is at the northern limit of the North American Great Plains and may be suitable for agricultural expansion with a warming climate. To consider irrigation development and ecological impacts, it is important to understand the regional hydrologic consequences of climate change. To analyse historic trends that could extend into the future, we developed century‐long discharge records for the RDR, by coordinating data across hydrometric gauges, estimating annual flows from seasonal records, and undertaking flow naturalization to compensate for river regulation. Analyses indicated some coordination with the Pacific decadal oscillation and slight decline in summer and annual flows from 1912 to 2016 (−0.13%/year, Sen's slope). Another forecasting approach involved regional downscaling from the global circulation models, CGCMI‐A, ECHAM4, HadCM3, and NCAR‐CCM3. These projected slight flow decreases from the mountain headwaters versus increases from the foothills and boreal regions, resulting in a slight increase in overall river flows (+0.1%/year). Prior projections from these and other global circulation models ranged from slight decrease to slight increase, and the average projection of −0.05%/year approached the empirical trend. Assessments of other rivers draining the central and northern Rocky Mountains revealed a geographic transition in flow patterns over the past century. Flows from the rivers in Southern Alberta declined (around −0.15%/year), in contrast to increasing flows in north‐eastern British Columbia and the Yukon. The RDR watershed approaches this transition, and this study thus revealed regional differentiation in the hydrological consequences from climate change.

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