Dispersal is a central component of life history evolution. An increasing number of studies suggest that spatiotemporally variable environments may promote the evolution of "dispersal syndromes," consisting of covariation patterns between dispersal and morphological, physiological, behavioral, and life history traits. At the interspecific scale, the "colonizer syndrome" appears to be one of the most frequently recorded associations between dispersal and life history traits, linking a high dispersal rate, high fecundity, and a short lifespan as systematically combined adaptations in spatiotemporally varying environments. However, few studies have highlighted the existence of a "colonizer syndrome" at the intraspecific scale, and none have investigated how different degrees of habitat stochasticity might shape covariation patterns between dispersal and life history traits. In this study, we examined this issue in free-ranging metapopulations of the yellow-bellied toad (Bombina variegata) using capture-recapture data. Combining the results of this study with another recent study, we found that a high dispersal rate, high fecundity, and a short lifespan are associated in metapopulations experiencing unpredictable environments. In contrast, a very low dispersal rate (close to zero), low fecundity and a long lifespan are associated in metapopulations occupying predictable environments. We discuss these results as well as their demographic and evolutionary consequences.

Summary In the Northern Hemisphere, an increase in both the frequency and magnitude of violent flooding events has been reported due to climate change. According to life history theory, one might postulate that in ‘slow’ species: (i) environmental canalisation may act as a selective force that minimises to some extent adult survival variations caused by catastrophic flood and (ii) extreme flooding events would cause important variations in recruitment and young survival. Hence, it may be hypothesised that (iii) the population growth rate of ‘slow’ species might be relatively insensitive to changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events if adult survival remains largely unaffected. In this study, we investigated how extreme rainfall events resulting in severe flood impact population dynamics of a long‐lived endangered amphibian, the yellow‐bellied toad (Bombina variegata: Bombinatoridae). To address this issue, we used capture–recapture (CR) data collected on two populations (768 and 1154 individuals identified) in southern France and developed multi‐event CR models. Our results indicated that extreme flooding did not cause any variation in sub‐adult or adult survival, whereas recruitment and juvenile survival were negatively impacted. Furthermore, our simulations indicated that the population growth rate was only marginally sensitive to potential changes in the frequency of extreme flooding in the future. Hence, we suggest that extreme flooding does not appear to be a proximal factor of extinction risk for this endangered amphibian species.

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