BackgroundIndication biopsies for deterioration of kidney allograft function often require follow-up biopsies to assess treatment response or lack of improvement. Immune-mediated injury, namely borderline rejection (BLR), T-cell mediated rejection (TCMR), or antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR), results from preformed or de novo alloreactivity due to donor and recipient HLA-mismatches. The impact of HLA-mismatches on alloreactivity is determined by highly immunogenic HLA-epitopes.MethodsWe analyzed 123 kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) from 2009 to 2019 who underwent a first indication and a follow-up biopsy. KTRs were divided into three groups according to the first biopsy: No rejection (NR)/BLR (n=68); TCMR (n=21); ABMR (n=34). The HLA-derived epitope-mismatches were calculated using the Predicted Indirectly Recognizable HLA-Epitopes (PIRCHE-II) algorithm.ResultsGroup NR/BLR: KTRs with higher total PIRCHE-II scores were more likely to develop TCMR in the follow-up biopsy (p=0.031). Interestingly, these differences were significant for both HLA-class I- (p=0.017) and HLA-class II-derived (p=0.017) PIRCHE-II scores. Group TCMR: KTRs with ongoing TCMR in the follow-up biopsy were more likely to show higher total PIRCHE-II scores (median 101.50 vs. 74.00). Group ABMR: KTRs with higher total PIRCHE-II scores were more likely to show an increase in the microvascular inflammation score in the follow-up biopsy. This difference was more pronounced for the HLA-class II-derived PIRCHE-II scores (median 70.00 vs. 31.76; p=0.086).ConclusionsPIRCHE-II scores may prove useful as a biomarker to predict the histopathological changes of immune-related injury from a first indication to a follow-up biopsy. This immunological risk stratification may contribute to individualized treatment strategies.