Most populations of migrant shorebirds around the world are in serious decline, suggesting that vital condition-dependent rates such as fecundity and annual survival are being affected globally. A striking example is the red knot (Calidris canutus rufa) population wintering in Tierra del Fuego, which undertakes marathon 30,000 km hemispheric migrations annually. In spring, migrant birds forage voraciously on horseshoe crab eggs in Delaware Bay in the eastern USA before departing to breed in Arctic polar deserts. From 1997 to 2002 an increasing proportion of knots failed to reach threshold departure masses of 180-200 g, possibly because of later arrival in the Bay and food shortage from concurrent over-harvesting of crabs. Reduced nutrient storage, especially in late-arriving birds, possibly combined with reduced sizes of intestine and liver during refuelling, had severe fitness consequences for adult survival and recruitment of young in 2000-2002. From 1997 to 2002 known survivors in Delaware Bay were heavier at initial capture than birds never seen again, annual survival of adults decreased by 37% between May 2000 and May 2001, and the number of second-year birds in wintering flocks declined by 47%. Population size in Tierra del Fuego declined alarmingly from 51,000 to 27,000 in 2000-2002, seriously threatening the viability of this subspecies. Demographic modelling predicts imminent endangerment and an increased risk of extinction of the subspecies without urgent risk-averse management.

Since 1985, avian influenza virus surveillance has been conducted annually from mid-May to early June in charadriiform species from the families Scolopacidae and Laridae (shorebirds and gulls) at Delaware Bay in the northeast United States. The mass migrations of shorebirds, gulls and horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) coincide at that time, and large numbers of migrating birds pause at Delaware Bay to feed on horseshoe crab eggs deposited at the high-tide line. Influenza viruses are consistently isolated from charadriiform birds at Delaware Bay, at an overall rate approximately 17 times the combined rate of isolation at all other surveillance sites worldwide (490 isolates/9474 samples, 5.2% versus 49 isolates per 15 848 samples, 0.3%, respectively; Proportion test, p , 0.0001). The likelihood of isolating influenza viruses at Delaware Bay is dependent on the presence of ruddy turnstone (Arenaria interpres) at the sampling site (G-test of independence, p , 0.001). The convergence of host factors and environmental factors results in a unique ecological 'hot spot' for influenza viruses in Charadriiformes.

Wild birds have been implicated in the emergence of human and livestock influenza. The successful prediction of viral spread and disease emergence, as well as formulation of preparedness plans have been hampered by a critical lack of knowledge of viral movements between different host populations. The patterns of viral spread and subsequent risk posed by wild bird viruses therefore remain unpredictable. Here we analyze genomic data, including 287 newly sequenced avian influenza A virus (AIV) samples isolated over a 34-year period of continuous systematic surveillance of North American migratory birds. We use a Bayesian statistical framework to test hypotheses of viral migration, population structure and patterns of genetic reassortment. Our results reveal that despite the high prevalence of Charadriiformes infected in Delaware Bay this host population does not appear to significantly contribute to the North American AIV diversity sampled in Anseriformes. In contrast, influenza viruses sampled from Anseriformes in Alberta are representative of the AIV diversity circulating in North American Anseriformes. While AIV may be restricted to specific migratory flyways over short time frames, our large-scale analysis showed that the long-term persistence of AIV was independent of bird flyways with migration between populations throughout North America. Analysis of long-term surveillance data provides vital insights to develop appropriately informed predictive models critical for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection.

ABSTRACT:Birds in the order Charadriiformes were sampled at multiple sites in the eastern half of the continental USA, as well as at Argentina, Chile, and Bermuda, during 1999-2005, and tested for avian influenza virus (AIV). Of more than 9,400 birds sampled, AIV virus was isolated from 290 birds. Although Ruddy Turnstones (Arenaria interpres) comprised just 25% of birds sampled, they accounted for 87% of isolates. Only eight AIV isolations were made from birds at four locations outside of the Delaware Bay, USA, region; six of these were from gulls (Laridae). At Delaware Bay, AIV isolations were predominated by hemagglutinin (HA) subtype H10, but subtype diversity varied each year. These results suggest that AIV infection among shorebirds (Scolopacidae) may be localized, species specific, and highly variable in relation to AIV subtype diversity.