The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) is often used as a summary index of the diagnostic ability in evaluating biomarkers when the clinical outcome (truth) is binary. When the clinical outcome is right-censored survival time, the C index, motivated as an extension of AUC, has been proposed by Harrell as a measure of concordance between a predictive biomarker and the right-censored survival outcome. In this work, we investigate methods for statistical comparison of two diagnostic or predictive systems, of which they could either be two biomarkers or two fixed algorithms, in terms of their C indices. We adopt a U-statistics based C estimator that is asymptotically normal and develop a nonparametric analytical approach to estimate the variance of the C estimator and the covariance of two C estimators. A z-score test is then constructed to compare the two C indices. We validate our one-shot nonparametric method via simulation studies in terms of the type I error rate and power. We also compare our one-shot method with resampling methods including the jackknife and the bootstrap. Simulation results show that the proposed one-shot method provides almost unbiased variance estimations and has satisfactory type I error control and power. Finally, we illustrate the use of the proposed method with an example from the Framingham Heart Study.

New, lower-cost tests that target high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) have been developed for cervical cancer screening in lower-resource settings but large, population-based screening studies are lacking. Women ages 25 to 65 years and living in rural China (n ¼ 7,543) self-collected a cervicovaginal specimen, had 2 cervical specimens collected by a clinician, and underwent visual inspection after acetic acid (VIA). The self-and one clinician-collected specimens underwent HR-HPV DNA testing by careHPV (QIAGEN) and Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2; QIAGEN) and the other clinician-collected specimen was tested for HPV16, 18, and 45 E6 using OncoE6 (Arbor Vita Corporation). Women who screened positive for any test and a random sample of those negative on all tests underwent colposcopic evaluation. The percent test positive was 1.8% for HPV E6 oncoprotein, between 14% and 18% for HR-HPV DNA testing, and 7.3% for VIA. The sensitivity for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or more severe (CIN3 þ ; n ¼ 99) was 53.5% for OncoE6, 97.0% for both careHPV and HC2 testing of the clinician-collected specimen, 83.8% for careHPV testing and 90.9% for HC2 testing of the self-collected specimen, and 50.5% for VIA. OncoE6 had the greatest positive predictive value (PPV), at 40.8% for CIN3 þ , compared with the other tests, which had a PPV of less than 10%. OncoE6 tested 70.3% positive for HPV16, 18, or 45-positive CIN3 þ and tested negative for all HPV16-, 18-, or 45-negative CIN3 þ (P < 0.0001). HPV E6 oncoprotein detection is useful for identifying women who have cervical precancer and cancer. Cancer Prev Res; 6(9); 938-48. Ó2013 AACR.

We conducted an adaptive design single‐center pilot trial between October 2017 and November 2018 to determine the safety and efficacy of ultra‐short‐term perioperative pangenotypic direct acting antiviral (DAA) prophylaxis for deceased hepatitis C virus (HCV)‐nucleic acid test (NAT) positive donors to HCV negative kidney recipients (D+/R−). In Group 1, 10 patients received one dose of SOF/VEL (sofusbuvir/velpatasvir) pretransplant and one dose on posttransplant Day 1. In Group 2A (N = 15) and the posttrial validation (Group 2B; N = 25) phase, patients received two additional SOF/VEL doses (total 4) on Days 2 and 3 posttransplant. Development of posttransplant HCV transmission triggered 12‐week DAA therapy. For available donor samples (N = 27), median donor viral load was 1.37E + 06 IU/mL (genotype [GT]1a: 70%; GT2: 7%; GT3: 23%). Overall viral transmission rate was 12% (6/50; Group 1:30% [3/10]; Group 2A:13% [2/15]; Group 2B:4% [1/25]). For the 6 viremic patients, 5 (83%) achieved sustained virologic response (3 with first‐line DAA therapy; and two after retreatment with second‐line DAA). At a median follow‐up of 8 months posttransplant, overall patient and allograft survivals were 98%, respectively. The 4‐day strategy reduced viral transmission to 7.5% (3/40; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.8%‐20.5%) and could result in avoidance of prolonged posttransplant DAA therapy for most D+/R − transplants.

Background. Circulating donor-derived cell-free DNA (cfDNA), a minimally invasive diagnostic tool for kidney transplant rejection, was validated using traditional histology. The molecular microscope diagnostic system (MMDx) tissue gene expression platform may provide increased precision to traditional histology. Methods. In this single-center prospective study of 208 biopsies (median = 5.8 mo) posttransplant, we report on the calibration of cfDNA with simultaneous biopsy assessments using MMDx and histology by area under the curve (AUC) analyses for optimal criterion, as well as for, previously published cfDNA cutoffs ≤ 0.21% to “rule-out” rejection and ≥1% to “rule-in” rejection. Results. There were significant discrepancies between histology and MMDx, with MMDx identifying more antibody-mediated rejection (65; 31%) than histology (43; 21%); the opposite was true for T cell–mediated rejection [TCMR; histology: 27 (13%) versus MMDx: 13 (6%)]. Most of the TCMR discrepancies were seen for histologic borderline/1A TCMR. AUC for cfDNA and prediction of rejection were slightly better with MMDx (AUC = 0.80; 95% CI: 0.74-0.86) versus histology (AUC = 0.75; 95% CI: 0.69-0.81). A cfDNA ≤ 0.21% had similar sensitivity (~91%) to “rule-out” rejection by histology and MMDx. Specificity was slightly higher with MMDx (92%) compared with histology (85%) to “rule-in” rejection using cfDNA criterion ≥1%. Strong positive quantitative correlations were observed between cfDNA scores and molecular acute kidney injury for both “rejection” and “nonrejection” biopsies. Conclusions. Molecular diagnostics using tissue gene expression and blood-based donor-derived cell-free DNA may add precision to some cases of traditional histology. The positive correlation of cfDNA with molecular acute kidney injury suggests a dose-dependent association with tissue injury irrespective of rejection characteristics.

Multiple diagnostic tests or biomarkers can be combined to improve diagnostic accuracy. The problem of finding the optimal linear combinations of biomarkers to maximise the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve has been extensively addressed in the literature. The purpose of this article is threefold: (1) to provide an extensive review of the existing methods for biomarker combination; (2) to propose a new combination method, namely, the nonparametric stepwise approach; (3) to use leave-one-pair-out cross-validation method, instead of re-substitution method, which is overoptimistic and hence might lead to wrong conclusion, to empirically evaluate and compare the performance of different linear combination methods in yielding the largest area under receiver operating characteristic curve. A data set of Duchenne muscular dystrophy was analysed to illustrate the applications of the discussed combination methods.