The deep sea encompasses the largest ecosystems on Earth. Although poorly known, deep seafloor ecosystems provide services that are vitally important to the entire ocean and biosphere. Rising atmospheric greenhouse gases are bringing about significant changes in the environmental properties of the ocean realm in terms of water column oxygenation, temperature, pH and food supply, with concomitant impacts on deep-sea ecosystems. Projections suggest that abyssal (3000-6000 m) ocean temperatures could increase by 1°C over the next 84 years, while abyssal seafloor habitats under areas of deep-water formation may experience reductions in water column oxygen concentrations by as much as 0.03 mL L -1 by 2100. Bathyal depths (200-3000 m) worldwide will undergo the most significant reductions in pH in all oceans by the year 2100 (0.29 to 0.37 pH units). O 2 concentrations will also decline in the bathyal NE Pacific and Southern Oceans, with losses up to 3.7% or more, especially at intermediate depths. Another important environmental parameter, the flux of particulate organic matter to the seafloor, is likely to decline significantly in most oceans, most notably in the abyssal and bathyal Indian Ocean where it is predicted to decrease by 40-55% by the end of the century. Unfortunately, how these major changes will affect deep-seafloor ecosystems is, in some cases, very poorly understood. In this paper, we provide a detailed overview of the impacts of these changing environmental parameters on deep-seafloor ecosystems that will most likely be seen by 2100 in continental margin, abyssal and polar settings. We also consider how these changes may combine with other anthropogenic stressors (e.g., fishing, mineral mining, oil and gas extraction) to further impact deep-seafloor ecosystems and discuss the possible societal implications.

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The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep‐sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep‐sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold‐water coral and commercially important deep‐sea fish species under present‐day (1951–2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081–2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%–100% in suitable habitat for cold‐water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep‐sea fishes of 2.0°–9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%–30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%–42% of present‐day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%–14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep‐sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area‐based planning and management tools.

The Mingulay reef complex in the Sea of the Hebrides west of Scotland was first mapped in 2003 with a further survey in 2006 revealing previously unknown live coral reef areas at 120 to 190 m depth. Habitat mapping confirmed that distinctive mounded bathymetry was formed by reefs of Lophelia pertusa with surficial coral debris dating to almost 4000 yr. Benthic lander and mooring deployments revealed 2 dominant food supply mechanisms to the reefs: a regular rapid downwelling of surface water delivering pulses of warm fluorescent water, and periodic advection of high turbidity bottom waters. Closed chamber respirometry studies suggest that L. pertusa responds to seawater warming, such as that seen during the rapid downwelling events, with increases in metabolic rate. Lipid biomarker analysis implies that corals at Mingulay feed predominantly on herbivorous calanoid copepods. Integrating geophysical and hydrographical survey data allowed us to quantify the roles of these environmental factors in controlling biodiversity of attached epifaunal species across the reefs. Longitudinal structuring of these communities is striking: species richness (α) and turnover (β) change significantly west to east, with variation in community composition largely explained by bathymetric variables that are spatially structured on the reef complex. Vibro-cores through the reef mounds show abundant coral debris with significant hiatuses. High resolution side-scan sonar revealed trawl marks in areas south of the coral reefs where vessel monitoring system data showed the highest density of local fishing activity. The interdisciplinary approach in this study allowed us to record the food supply and hydrographic environment experienced by L. pertusa and determine how it may be ecophysiologically adapted to these conditions. Improved basic understanding of cold-water coral biology and biodiversity alongside efforts to map and date these long-lived habitats are vital to development of future conservation policies. KEY WORDS: Ecological engineer · Lophelia pertusa · Seamounts · Internal waves Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Contribution to the Theme Section 'Conservation and management of deep-sea corals and coral reefs'