To determine the sensitivity and specificity of HPV16 serology as diagnostic marker for HPV16-driven oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), 214 HNSCC patients from Germany and Italy with fresh-frozen tumor tissues and sera collected before treatment were included in this study. Hundred and twenty cancer cases were from the oropharynx and 94 were from head and neck cancer regions outside the oropharynx (45 oral cavity, 12 hypopharynx and 35 larynx). Serum antibodies to early (E1, E2, E6 and E7) and late (L1) HPV16 proteins were analyzed by multiplex serology and were compared to tumor HPV RNA status as the gold standard. A tumor was defined as HPV-driven in the presence of HPV16 DNA and HPV16 transformation-specific RNA transcript patterns (E6*I, E1 E4 and E1C). Of 120 OPSCC, 66 (55%) were HPV16-driven. HPV16 E6 seropositivity was the best predictor of HPV16-driven OPSCC (diagnostic accuracy 97% [95%CI 92-99%], Cohen's kappa 0.93 [95%CI 0.8-1.0]). Of the 66 HPV-driven OPSCC, 63 were HPV16 E6 seropositive, compared to only one (1.8%) among the 54 non-HPV-driven OPSCC, resulting in a sensitivity of 96% (95%CI 88-98) and a specificity of 98% (95%CI 90-100). Of 94 HNSCC outside the oropharynx, six (6%) were HPV16-driven. In these patients, HPV16 E6 seropositivity had lower sensitivity (50%, 95%CI 19-81), but was highly specific (100%, 95%CI 96-100). In conclusion, HPV16 E6 seropositivity appears to be a highly reliable diagnostic marker for HPV16-driven OPSCC with very high sensitivity and specificity, but might be less sensitive for HPV16-driven HNSCC outside the oropharynx.

Background Human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16)-E6 antibodies are detectable in peripheral blood before diagnosis in the majority of HPV16-driven oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), but the timing of seroconversion is unknown. Patients and methods We formed the HPV Cancer Cohort Consortium which comprises nine population cohorts from Europe, North America and Australia. In total, 743 incident OPSCC cases and 5814 controls provided at least one pre-diagnostic blood sample, including 111 cases with multiple samples. Median time between first blood collection and OPSCC diagnosis was 11.4 years (IQR = 6–11 years, range = 0–40 years). Antibodies against HPV16-E6 were measured by multiplex serology (GST fusion protein based Luminex assay). Results HPV16-E6 seropositivity was present in 0.4% of controls (22/5814; 95% CI 0.2% to 0.6%) and 26.2% (195/743; 95% CI 23.1% to 29.6%) of OPSCC cases. HPV16-E6 seropositivity increased the odds of OPSCC 98.2-fold (95% CI 62.1–155.4) in whites and 17.2-fold (95% CI 1.7–170.5) in blacks. Seropositivity in cases was more frequent in recent calendar periods, ranging from 21.9% pre-1996 to 68.4% in 2005 onwards, in those with blood collection near diagnosis (lead time <5 years). HPV16-E6 seropositivity increased with lead time: 0.0%, 13.5%, 23.7%, and 38.9% with lead times of >30 years ( N = 24), 20–30 years ( N = 148), 10–20 years ( N = 228), and <10 years ( N = 301 cases) ( p -trend < 0.001). Of the 47 HPV16-E6 seropositive cases with serially-collected blood samples, 17 cases seroconverted during follow-up, with timing ranging from 6 to 28 years before diagnosis. For the remaining 30 cases, robust seropositivity was observed up to 25 years before diagnosis. Conclusions The immune response to HPV16-driven tumorigenesis is most often detectable several decades before OPSCC diagnosis. HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals face increased risk of OPSCC over several decades.

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