Farmland birds, including breeding waders, have declined across Europe. One frequently advocated strategy to facilitate population recovery is using agri-environment schemes (AES) to improve vegetation structure. A key example is cutting dense rush Juncus to open the sward which aims to increase the abundance of wading birds, for example by improving foraging conditions. Effects on breeding success are, however, unknown. This is a critical knowledge gap as high nest and chick predation rates are a key driver of wader declines. For wader species that nest across a range of sward structures, for example Eurasian curlew Numenius arquata and common snipe Gallinago gallinago, converting denser swards to more open ones may reduce opportunities for nest concealment and thus increase predation risk. Due to the difficulties of locating large numbers of wader nests, we assess rush management impacts on nest predation risk using artificial wader nests (n = 184) in two upland areas of England, using fields in which rush is managed according to AES prescriptions (treatment; n = 21) or un-managed (control; n = 22) fields. Daily nest predation rates (DPRs) were twice as high in treatment (0.064 day À1) than control fields (0.027 day À1). Within treatment fields, DPRs were twice as high for nests in cut rush patches (0.108 day À1) than in uncut rush (0.055 day À1). Modelling links higher DPRs associated with rush cutting to the resultant shorter and less dense vegetation. Our results highlight the need to assess how AES prescriptions that alter vegetation structure impact all aspects of the target species' fitness and thus determine population recovery. Studies using real wader nests should test whether AES rush management inadvertently creates an ecological trap by altering vegetation structure, and identify the sward structure and configuration that optimizes trade-offs between foraging conditions and nest predation risk.

13Environmental change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of problems 14 caused by harmful algal blooms. We investigated the ecology of phytoplankton blooms in UK 15 canals to determine the environmental predictors and spatial structure of bloom 16 communities. The results revealed a significant increase in bloom presence with increasing 17 elevation. As predicted, higher temperatures were associated with a greater probability of 18 blooms, but the relationship between temperature and bloom occurrence changed across 19 landscapes. At the minimum level of agricultural land, the probability of bloom presence 20 increased with increasing temperature. Conversely, at the maximum level, the probability 21 decreased with increasing temperature. This pattern could be due to higher temperatures 22 increasing phytoplankton growth rates despite lower nutrient concentrations at low levels of 23 agricultural land, and nutrient depletion by rapidly growing blooms at high levels of 24 agricultural land and temperatures. Community composition exhibited spatial autocorrelation: 25 nearby blooms were more similar than distant blooms. Hydrological distances through the 26 canal network showed a stronger association with community dissimilarity than Euclidean 27 distances, suggesting a role for hydrological connectivity in driving bloom formation and 28 composition. This new knowledge regarding canal phytoplankton bloom origin and ecology 29 could help inform measures to inhibit bloom formation. 30 31 Keywords: algal bloom, cyanobacteria, climate, land use, health, connectivity, canal 32 hypotheses using a novel data source which arises from a bloom reporting system in 131 operation in England. 132 133 METHODS 134 Land use data, including patterns of natural, agricultural, and urban land, were obtained from 135 the Land Cover Map (LCM) 2007

Encroachment of rush Juncus spp. in the United Kingdom uplands poses a threat to declining wader populations due to taller, denser swards that can limit foraging and breeding habitat quality for some species. Rush management via cutting, implemented through agri-environment schemes (AESs), could thus increase wader abundance, but there is insufficient assessment and understanding of how rush management influences upland waders. Across two upland regions of England [South West Peak (SWP) and Geltsdale nature reserve, Cumbria], we surveyed waders over four visits in fields where rush was managed according to AES prescriptions (treatment; n = 21) and fields without rush management that were otherwise ecologically similar (control; n = 22) to assess how the densities of breeding wader pairs respond to rush management in the short-term. We find evidence for regional variation in the response of waders to rush management, with densities of Common Snipe Gallinago gallinago significantly higher in treatment than control fields in the SWP, but not Geltsdale. There were no statistically significant responses to treatment on densities of Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata or Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus. The 95% confidence intervals for the treatment parameter estimates suggest that this may be due to limited statistical power in the case of Lapwing. For Curlew, however, any potential increases in densities are negligible. There was no evidence that variation in rush cover, which ranged from 10 to 70%, influenced densities of any of our three focal species. Our results suggest that rush management through AES prescriptions delivered in isolation of other interventions may not lead to general increases in breeding wader densities in the short-term, but benefits may arise in some situations due to regional and inter-specific variation in effectiveness. Rush management supported with interventions that improve soil conditions and thus food availability, or reduce predation pressure, may enable AES rush management to generate benefits. Additional research is required to maximise the potential benefits of rush management for each species through the development of prescriptions that tailor to individual species’ optimum sward structure.