The present research shows that when a confidently held self-view (e.g., "I am an exciting person") is temporarily cast in doubt, individuals are motivated to choose products that bolster their original self-view (e.g., choosing brands with exciting brand personalities). The findings across three studies suggest that subtle manipulations can temporarily "shake" one's self-view confidence, resulting in an increased propensity of choosing self-view-bolstering products in a subsequent choice task. The consequences of the "shaken self' for product choices are examined in different self-domains. The findings also suggest that the effects of the shaken self are attenuated when individuals have the opportunity to restore their self-view confidence prior to the final choice task.The self is not something ready-made, but something in continuous formation through choice of action. (John Dewey)

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Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

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