Rapid construction and development activities in large urban areas have significantly impacted land use and land cover (LULC). They have brought great pressure to urban sustainable development. Current studies have shown that changes in LULC structure significantly affect regional ecosystem service functions but lack the sufficient scientific basis to provide reasonable strategies for the future development of urban areas. Based on land use and related data for the Wuhan metropolitan area (WMA) in 2000, 2010, and 2020, in this study, we construct a land use and ecosystem service value (ESV) simulation method based on a coupled PLUS-GMOP (patch generation land use simulation and grey multi-objective optimization) model and find that the changes in LULC structure from 2000 to 2020 are mainly reflected in the decrease in farmland and water area and the increase in built-up land, which are spatially reflected in Wuhan city center and other surrounding urban centers. The ESV also exhibits a slight increase and then a significant decrease, and a consistent overall pattern of high in the west and low in the east. By presupposing three scenarios for 2030 (ND, natural development; EFD, ecological first development; EECD, ecological and economic coordinated development), the analysis shows that although the ecological service value is still decreasing, the EECD scenario achieves a relatively high economic value (+90.134 billion yuan) by losing less ecological service value (0.27 million yuan) than EFD, which is the development model advocated in this study. The PLUS-GMOP coupling model proposed in this study provides a scientific reference for coordinating regional economic development and ecological protection in large cities, and provides a new technical path for metropolitan area sustainable development and planning.

Metropolitan areas in China are not only the core spatial carriers of urbanization development but also the main generators of land use carbon emission (LUCE). However, existing research lacks comparative studies on the differential patterns and impact factors of LUCE in different stages of metropolitan areas. Therefore, this paper deeply analyzes the spatial characteristics of LUCE and the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of the economy contributive coefficient (ECC) and ecological support coefficient (ESC) in three different stages of metropolitan areas in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), China. Moreover, quantitative modelling of the impact factors of LUCE in these different stages of metropolitan areas is furtherly revealed. Results show that: (1) The more mature stage of the metropolitan area, the higher the amount of LUCE, and the more districts or counties with high carbon emissions levels are clustered. (2) At the metropolitan area scale, the more mature the metropolitan area is and the lower the CCD between ECC and ESC is, while at the finer scale, more developed counties have lower CCD. (3) Resident population, per capita GDP, and urbanization rate have good explanatory effects on carbon emissions in these three metropolitan areas; however, except for the urbanization rate, which has a negative effect on LUCE in Nanchang metropolitan area (NMA), the other two factors have positive effects on LUCE in these three metropolitan areas. This study has important implications for different stages of metropolitan areas to formulate targeted LUCE reduction policies.