Is corruption, the main source of unemployment in the SADC countries? Do the effects of corruption outweigh those of income inequalities, human capital and government revenues in explaining the unemployment rate within the SADC area? Through these questions, the objective of our paper is to propose targeted policies that can enable decision-makers to reduce the unemployment rate within the SADC area. Through a panel vector autoregressive model, our empirical investigation on a sample of nine (09) SADC countries reveals that the education level and income inequalities contribute the most to explain the total unemployment rate. However, for the youth unemployment, corruption is the main factor followed by the level of education. To reduce total unemployment in the area, SADC countries need to reduce income inequalities and the mismatch between education and the labour market needs and/or countries' development programs. For the youth unemployment, the reduction of corruption to all its forms should be the priority of political and economic decisionmakers.
To facilitate the introduction of a single currency in Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the fiscal convergence criterion currently proposed by countries limits the public deficit to 3 per cent of GDP. According to the literature, the limitation of the public deficit to a given threshold is the most fundamental norm of the various convergence pacts existing and needed for monetary integration. Through a nonlinear panel data model, this paper tests the validity of the threshold by determining the public deficit threshold not to be exceeded so that fiscal policy has a positive effect on economic growth. Over the decade 2007-2016, this threshold is estimated at 4.74 per cent of GDP. Thus, the paper concludes that the proposed convergence criterion of 3 per cent of GDP is pro-growth. However, in relation to the estimated threshold, there is a room for manoeuvre that can be used for supporting economic growth. Thus, the proposed threshold could be readjusted upward. The analysis also reveals that only four countries in ECOWAS are on the track to respect in the future, the proposed fiscal criterion and therefore are taking an important step toward the adoption of the future currency. The other countries need to make significant fiscal consolidation operations before hoping to adopt the single currency on the basis of fiscal discipline.
This paper analyzes the income inequality effect of economic integration in ECOWAS by decomposing economic integration into two dimensions: trade and fiscal integration approximated respectively by trade intensity and fiscal convergence. For robustness purposes, we use different metrics for each dimension. We also consider the introduction in the region of the growth and convergence pact in the analysis of fiscal integration effect on income inequality. The analysis covers the period 1990–2018. For the empirical evidence, the generalized method of moment is used. The results obtained are robust and reveal that improving regional economic integration has a reducing effect on income inequality. Taken individually, trade integration and fiscal integration contribute to reducing income inequality. However, taken together, the reducing effect of economic integration on income inequality is more pronounced. Besides, the results indicate that fiscal integration has more contributed to the reduction of income inequality since the introduction of the first fiscal convergence pact in the region in 2000 than before. For reducing income inequality, our analysis recommends to ECOWAS countries to take steps to remove barriers to regional trade on the one hand, and on the other hand, to converge together on the fiscal front.
In this paper, we test the existence of an optimal inflation interval within which, the inflation of the West African countries supports economic growth. Beside this objective, we seek to test the validity of the 5% inflation threshold not to be exceeded, proposed as a convergence criterion for the fifteen countries of the region called to form a monetary union by 2020. Our analysis covers the period 2007-2016. By adopting a nonlinear approach, our investigation reveals two (02) endogenous inflation thresholds estimated at 8.01% and 15.46%. The positive effect on growth begins when inflation is comprised between the two thresholds. Above this interval, inflation has no effect on economic growth. Our results invalidate hence the 5% inflation threshold proposed as a convergence criterion and for supporting economic growth within the future monetary union. For a high-performing monetary union, preferably it would be better to define an inflation threshold between 8.01 and 15.46% as convergence criterion.
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