Using bootstrap method, we have constructed nonparametric prediction intervals for Conditional Value-at-Risk for returns that admit a heteroscedastic location-scale model where the location and scale functions are smooth, and the function of the error term is unknown and is assumed to be uncorrelated to the independent variable. The prediction interval performs well for large sample sizes and is relatively small, which is consistent with what is obtainable in the literature.
The estimation of the Smoothed Conditional Scale Function for time series was taken out under the conditional heteroscedastic innovations by imitating the kernel smoothing in nonparametric QAR-QARCH scheme. The estimation was taken out based on the quantile regression methodology proposed by Koenker and Bassett. And the proof of the asymptotic properties of the Conditional Scale Function estimator for this type of process was given and its consistency was shown.
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