IMPORTANCE With emerging new systemic treatments for metastatic melanoma, early detection of disease recurrence is increasingly important. OBJECTIVE To investigate the risk of melanoma recurrence in patients with a localized melanoma at a high risk of metastasis.

Ulcerated primary melanomas are associated with an inflammatory tumor microenvironment. We hypothesized that systemic proinflammatory states and anti-inflammatory medications are also associated with a diagnosis of ulcerated melanoma. In a cross-sectional study of 787 patients with newly diagnosed clinical stage IB or II melanoma, we estimated odds ratios for the association of proinflammatory factors (high body mass index, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and smoking) or the use of anti-inflammatory medications (statins, aspirin, corticosteroids, and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), with ulcerated primary melanoma using regression models and subgroup analyses to control for melanoma thickness and mitotic rate. On the basis of information from 194 patients with ulcerated and 593 patients with nonulcerated primary melanomas, regular statin users had lower likelihood of a diagnosis of ulcerated primary melanoma (odds ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.45-0.99), and this association remained after adjusting for age, sex, thickness, and mitosis. When analysis was limited to melanomas that were ≤2 mm thick and had ≤2 mitoses/mm (40 ulcerated; 289 without ulceration), patients with diabetes had significantly raised odds of diagnosis of ulcerated melanoma (odds ratio 2.90, 95% confidence interval 1.07-7.90), adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and statin use. These findings support our hypotheses that statin use is inversely associated, and diabetes is positively associated, with ulcerated melanoma.

Background Screening for skin cancer can be cost-effective if focused on high-risk groups. Risk prediction tools have been developed for keratinocyte cancers and melanoma to optimize advice and management. However, few have been validated in a clinical setting over the past few years.Objectives To assess the clinical utility of risk assessment tools to identify individuals with prevalent skin cancers in a volunteer-based screening clinic.Methods Participants were adults presenting for a skin check at a volunteer-based skin cancer screening facility. We used previously published tools, based on questionnaire responses, to predict melanoma and keratinocyte cancers [KCs; basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC)] and classified each participant into one of five risk categories. Participants subsequently underwent a full skin examination by a dermatologist. All suspicious lesions were biopsied, and all cancers were histopathologically confirmed. Results Of 789 people who presented to the clinic, 507 (64%) consented to the study. Twenty-two BCCs, 19 SCCs and eight melanomas were diagnosed. The proportion of keratinocyte cancers diagnosed increased according to risk category from <1% in the lowest to 24% in the highest risk category (P < 0.001). Subtype analysis revealed similar proportionate increases in BCC or SCC prevalence according to risk category. However, a similar proportion of melanoma cases were detected in the low-risk and high-risk groups. ConclusionThe risk prediction model for keratinocyte cancers can reliably identify individuals with a significant skin cancer burden prior to a skin examination in the community setting. The prediction tool for melanoma needs to be tested in a larger sample exposed to a wider range of environmental risk factors.